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The latest spate of ISIS attacks in Iraq has raised fears the group is exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic to step up its attacks: https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/20042020
So is ISIS really escalating? Or is this seeming 'escalation' just more of the group's continuing insurgency?
• THREAD •
So is ISIS really escalating? Or is this seeming 'escalation' just more of the group's continuing insurgency?
• THREAD •
Over the past several weeks, ISIS has claimed more aggressive, direct attacks on Iraqi security forces.
These attacks would mark a seeming shift from mostly preying on civilians and taking asymmetric shots at Iraqi forces: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/207-averting-isis-resurgence-iraq-and-syria
2/13
These attacks would mark a seeming shift from mostly preying on civilians and taking asymmetric shots at Iraqi forces: https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/207-averting-isis-resurgence-iraq-and-syria
2/13
Of course, ISIS is unreliable.
One official in the international Coalition to combat ISIS said the group will spin Iraqi operations to clear ISIS hideouts as "attacks": "ISIS is the type of group that if you punch them in nose, they’ll take credit for it, as an 'attack.'"
3/13
One official in the international Coalition to combat ISIS said the group will spin Iraqi operations to clear ISIS hideouts as "attacks": "ISIS is the type of group that if you punch them in nose, they’ll take credit for it, as an 'attack.'"
3/13
Still, it seems like this latest escalation – since roughly the start of April – is real.
There's little way to definitively measure or quantify the shift. And any change is incremental, relative to the group's previously low level of violence – nothing like 2013 or 2014.
4/13
There's little way to definitively measure or quantify the shift. And any change is incremental, relative to the group's previously low level of violence – nothing like 2013 or 2014.
4/13
ISIS's latest attacks are still being carried out with roughly the same level of technical complexity, by small guerrilla units operating mostly in rugged terrain running from Nineveh through Diyala, including territories disputed between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region.
5/13
5/13
But those attacks have apparently become more assertive: More direct assaults on Iraqi security forces, initiated by ISIS; and more daytime attacks.
The group has also reported more attacks on Anbar's western periphery, after a period of relative quiet in Anbar.
6/13
The group has also reported more attacks on Anbar's western periphery, after a period of relative quiet in Anbar.
6/13
As one diplomat from a Coalition member country put it: "They’re bolder, more aggressive... They use IEDs, as usual. But more and more they engage in firefights, whether with the [Iraqi security forces] or PMF [Hashd] – and they kill."
7/13
7/13
The attacks seem like an attempt to force Iraqi security forces to retreat into fortified bases, and to intimidate local civilian communities into non-cooperation with the Iraqi state and security forces.
8/13
8/13
. @hushamalhashimi says: "The danger is that these groups could set up hideouts near urban areas, which would let cells start carrying out special operations inside cities. That would mean greater losses, and attacks with grave sectarian, political and economic dimensions."
9/13
9/13
Still, the reason for ISIS's shift is unclear.
It comes amid tensions between the U.S., Iran and Iraqi paramilitaries. Coalition forces have exited a number of Iraqi military bases and consolidated in fewer, safer bases. ISIS may be trying to respond with a show of force.
10/13
It comes amid tensions between the U.S., Iran and Iraqi paramilitaries. Coalition forces have exited a number of Iraqi military bases and consolidated in fewer, safer bases. ISIS may be trying to respond with a show of force.
10/13
ISIS may also be taking advantage of the Iraqi state and security forces' distraction because of COVID-19, as those Iraqi units adjust their posture in accordance with health precautions, and some are tasked with enforcing public health measures like curfews.
11/13
11/13
. @CrisisGroup has warned ISIS could capitalize on its enemies' preoccupation with COVID-19: https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/contending-isis-time-coronavirus
ISIS's latest attacks are a reminder that Iraqis and their foreign partners have to remain vigilant against the group's threat, even amid the pandemic.
12/13
ISIS's latest attacks are a reminder that Iraqis and their foreign partners have to remain vigilant against the group's threat, even amid the pandemic.
12/13
Once Iraqis form a new government, it can put counter-ISIS on a more stable long-term footing by working for:
• an agreement on security arrangements in the disputed territories;
• a new understanding on the presence of international forces, under Iraqi control.
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• an agreement on security arrangements in the disputed territories;
• a new understanding on the presence of international forces, under Iraqi control.
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