As Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon lays out a potential strategy to exit lockdown she says falls in Covid hospital admissions and numbers of patients in intensive care are "very encouraging" and grounds for "real optimism.

"The science will never be exact" and "we are in uncharted territory" so we must be prepared to "adapt and change course as we go" says Ms Sturgeon promising to be "frank" with the public "every step of the way."

Nicola Sturgeon says the number one priority is continuing to suppress the virus. Before lockdown the reproduction number was very likely above three. Our best estimate now is that the R number is somewhere between 0.6 and one, says the First Minister.

Ms Sturgeon says the virus is probably spreading faster in care homes than elsewhere. She says "the real risk is that Covid-19 runs rampant again" as we begin to lift restrictions.

Lifting the lockdown cannot be done with a "flick of the switch," says Ms Sturgeon. Rather it will be careful, gradual, incremental and probably quite small to start with.

Businesses and classrooms may have to be redesigned, says Ms Sturgeon. It's possible not all children will be able to go back to school at once. No large scale gatherings for the foreseeable future.

Testing for the virus, tracing contacts of those who have it and isolating as necessary will be central to the Scottish government's approach, says Ms Sturgeon, insisting that preparations for this are already underway.

Here is the full Scottish government paper on potential exit strategies. The First Minster is encouraging everyone to read it, even those not in the habit of reading government papers, and comment on it. https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making/govscot%3Adocument/coronavirus-covid-19-framework-decision-making.pdf

Some snippets from the Scottish government paper follow. First: "We cannot stay in complete lockdown indefinitely...vaccines and treatments...are still potentially many months away...we need to find a way to live with this
virus and minimise its harms."

The Scottish government makes clear that herd immunity is not a strategy in the absence of a vaccine.

Nicola Sturgeon: We did 2,000 tests yesterday. We are working towards a capacity of 3,500 by end of April. But, in answer to @jamesmatthewsky, other than saying "much bigger" the First Minister is unable to specify what scale will be needed for the test, trace and isolate phase.

Scottish government: "The health impacts brought about by greater inequalities may themselves be significant over years to come."

Scot govt: This is unprecedented and is causing deep uncertainty and hardship for many businesses, individuals and households. The damaging effect on poverty and inequality may be profound.

There is a change in tone in this document. Until now almost all talk was about protecting the NHS and saving lives. Much more discussion here of the consequences of the lockdown. "We must do everything possible to avoid permanent, structural damage to our economy."

Nicola Sturgeon says she is not ruling out regional variations in easing the lockdown but she plays down the idea, saying the other factor in ensuring compliance is simplicity.

"Scotland is planning for a managed transition away from current restrictions [while enabling] suppression of transmission to continue. This will include ongoing physical distancing, [continued] good hand hygiene and public hygiene, and enhanced public health surveillance.

Although hospital and intensive care admissions are now falling, the Scottish government is clearly very concerned about the possibility of a second wave overwhelming the NHS and requiring another lockdown.

How does the Scottish government monitor the reproduction rate? "It's not exact...we're not sure," concedes Ms Sturgeon. Case numbers, percentages of tests, hospital and ICU admissions are taken into account and community surveillance will feed into that, she says.

Questions have already been asked about the Scottish government's delivery of community testing. Problems have been reported with its plan for 200 sentinel GP practices. https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18389702.coronavirus-scotland-questions-raised-population-surveillance-gps-say-virus-testing-not-happening-covid-hubs/

Nicola Sturgeon treading a rocky path: What I don't want to do is give people false expectation. But I don't want to depress people with talk of years. We have to be prepared for changes to how we live our lives for this year and possibly beyond.

Asked whether there is possibility of multiple lockdowns being imposed at short notice in future, Nicola Sturgeon says, simply, yes.

Again, in the document, a great deal of emphasis on the complexity of this crisis, making it clear this is not just the NHS versus the economy.

The lockdown is working, says the document, slowing the spread of the virus.

The current reproduction number is between 0.6 and 1.0 in the estimate of the Scottish government. But what is it and why does it matter?

Initially, and before lockdown, Nicola Sturgeon resisted closing schools, saying doing so might actually increase the "risk in terms of infection spread". Now, in a lockdown environment, her government lists school closures as one of four measures which reduced infection spread.

This is probably the most important paragraph in terms of specific policy. "Before any decision is made to lift restrictions...we must see R stabilise below 1.0 and ensure
that the impact of any decision to ease restrictions must maintain R below 1.0."

It is clear that the Scottish government does not yet have the data — either in quantity or quality — to assess when and how to end the lockdown. The pressure to widen and improve testing, both for the virus and for potential immunity, will only intensify.

Scottish government: "While we will continue to operate within a four nation UK framework and align our decisions as far as possible, we will take distinctive decisions for Scotland if the evidence tells us that is necessary."

This chart appears to show that the NHS is coping with Covid-19 and the lockdown is working but also that we are not out of the woods yet.

The $64,000 question: can the spread of the virus be suppressed by social distancing alone or is a continued lockdown necessary? Very hard to assess at this stage which is why gradual relaxation, possibly with regional/sectoral variations and potential reversals, is likely.

Bit technical but this is how the Scottish government will assess measures to ease the lockdown.

Even if the lockdown is eased, which won't be soon, and until vaccine/treatments are available, "living with the virus will mean continued uncertainty and changes to how we live our lives." No pubs, football/gigs and older/vulnerable/symptomatic folk to remain locked down.

How to contain the virus while easing the lockdown? These five steps will require an enormous amount of investment, a large number of trained staff and the co-operation of the public.

"Continuing to increase our testing capacity is a critical part of this challenge," reads the Scottish government document.

And "ensuring sufficient supply of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) is...crucial."

Yep.

"We need better data..."

Yes, yes, yes!

Workplaces are going to look very different when the lockdown is over.

After a rather long gap for other work, I have finished reading the Scottish government's coronavirus document. The last section is basically a lot of fine words about building a better Scotland when this is over. And then there's this: how to participate in the discussion.