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On @SquawkCNBC a few moments ago I told @andrewrsorkin I think it could be 2-3 years before we have a full return to something like normal. It seemed to come as a surprise.
Let me elaborate on how I see the outlook.
Let me elaborate on how I see the outlook.
Physical distancing can drive a decline in cases when rigorously enforced, and we are seeing that play out. But if those measures succeed, we're left with:
1) a lot of susceptible people
2) ongoing spread of the disease
And that means ongoing risk until vaccines arrive.
1) a lot of susceptible people
2) ongoing spread of the disease
And that means ongoing risk until vaccines arrive.
Vaccines will take a while. If we are fortunate and some of the current candidates prove effective, we'll know that by next Feb/March.
Then we need to ramp up production.
Then we need to administer widely.
Add another year+ (conservatively) for that. Maybe more.
Then we need to ramp up production.
Then we need to administer widely.
Add another year+ (conservatively) for that. Maybe more.
The risk will have to actively and aggressively managed for the 2-3 years until (
) everyone can get vaccinated.
What will that look like? Singapore provides some clues. They're handling this as well as anyone, and yet just triggered a lockdown after cases resurged.
) everyone can get vaccinated.What will that look like? Singapore provides some clues. They're handling this as well as anyone, and yet just triggered a lockdown after cases resurged.
Even once we've gotten our house in order in the US, we will face risks of domestic spread flaring up, and of travelers bringing in new cases. So we won't be able to let our guard down.
I can't predict exactly what this will all look like, because we'll have to learn by doing.
I can't predict exactly what this will all look like, because we'll have to learn by doing.
But I'd tentatively expect:
-Fewer large gatherings like sporting events
-Reductions in non-essential int'l travel
-Workplace changes - more telework where viable, other adaptations where it isn't
-Etc
Won't just be govt-mandated; also voluntary changes to individual behavior.
-Fewer large gatherings like sporting events
-Reductions in non-essential int'l travel
-Workplace changes - more telework where viable, other adaptations where it isn't
-Etc
Won't just be govt-mandated; also voluntary changes to individual behavior.
And the readiness to dial up more aggressive distancing measures as/when needed - and that will probably happen periodically.
Will arrival of new treatments mitigate this? Hopefully. But those only speed/improve recovery; you still need to limit spread.
Will arrival of new treatments mitigate this? Hopefully. But those only speed/improve recovery; you still need to limit spread.
Disruption is with us for a while. I'm confident we will find ways to adapt. And as we learn more about this disease, we may find other/better ways to mitigate the disruption.
But we should also be acclimating to the idea that there's no rapid return to the status quo ante.
But we should also be acclimating to the idea that there's no rapid return to the status quo ante.
The name of the game for the next few years is not return-to-normal; it’s adaptation-to-new-normal. We do urgently need to restore oxygen to our economy. But doing so safely means adaptation and mitigation.
