Thread:
1/15 How do we #EXIT #CovidLockdown in #India . I am not a qualified #Doctor , #epidemiologist or #Economist . So my observations below are what I have gleaned from information, and common sense. Criticism and feedback welcome
#Lockdown21 #lockdown #Covid_19india

2/15 First of all, #lockdowns do not kill the #virus or cure the disease. As far as I can gather, only three things can ‘cure’ #COVIDー19 : 1. A #vaccine (6 to 18 months away), 2. #HerdImmunity (50% to 70% of population infected) ,or 3. A lucky mutation in the virus itself

3/15 A #lockdown can help POSTPONE the disease, & prevent a sudden deadly spike in infections and deaths, so as to A. Give time for the #medical #infrastructure to be ready, and B. Spread out the case load for it to be more manageable on a daily basis, rather than a spike

4/15 Lockdowns alone cannot ‘flatten the curve’ too; that needs massive #testing AND #ContactTracing at SCALE e.g. what #SouthKorea , #Germany and #Kerala did well
#CoronavirusOutbreakindia #Corona

5/15 In #India India, we have done a partially successful #lockdown ockdown. I say partially because people of a certain demographic strata are perhaps locked down, a lot of the country is not.
#COVID19Pandemic

6/15 #TestingForCovid19 Testing, on the other hand, has been a failure, we are among the lowest in the world in that. Another possible partial success is that medical infrastructure ( #ventilators , #COVID beds, etc.) is slowly building up.
#Medical #HealthCareWorkers

7/15 Pertinent to note: While numbers are hazy, 63% of #fatalities fatalities in India have been for 60+ age group, 83% for people with #comorbidity (small sample size data until April 6). 90% of people in India are below 60 years.
#demography #youngcountry

8/15 So, #Lockdown2 India (uptil & after May 3) will only postpone the inevitable, not quell it. At a point of time, we will have to open up – in phases or totally – else we will have a mass starvation and law & order problem, far greater than the #pandemic
#Coronaindia

9/15 Once that happens, most of us WILL get the #disease , as most of us have gotten ordinary #viral #Fever or #malaria in this country. Some will not even know, some will have to be at home with a bad viral, a little worse than we are used to...
#FightAgainstCoronavirus

10/15 … and a small minority (maybe 5%) will not need to go to hospital. Hopefully we will have more curative capacity by then and fatality rates will be lesser than 10% who are critical.
#COVID19Pandemic

11/15 So, what do we do? What is the #exitstrategy ?
The best #Solution , in my opinion is this Seven Step 11/15 Process:

#sevensteps

12/15
1.Lift the #Lockdown2 in phases and #zones over #May for people below 60, and not having any identified comorbidity
2.Mandate as much social-distancing, disinfecting, etc. as possible (can never be 100% implemented)
#LockDownLifted #LockdownExtended

13/15
3.Let economic activity go back to as #normal as possible, else economic & social fallout will be far worse than the virus fallout; roll out #economicpackage
4.Let herd immunity build up in the free population
5. Build up health infra to reduce fatality rate to minimum

14/15
6. Build pharma manufacturing facilities for mass-producing a vaccine when it comes
7. Above 60 and co-morbidity people to be totally free only after #vaccine / #mutation / #HerdImmunity

#vaccines #Corona

15/15
There is no perfect solution, no silver bullet. But for a poor country with 1.3bn young people, 90% of them without assured jobs, in my humble opinion, this is perhaps the most optimum way.
#LockDownLifted #exitstrategy #EXIT