Read the sobering piece by @pokigbo on Facebook, and I think this is the time the wheat will be separated from the chaff. Every state government will have to think deeply about governance. Even Lagos.

States need to first understand their subnational comparative advantages, and focus on maybe 3 sectors at most. In a period of lean resources, focus is your most important weapon.

Most states can’t cut salaries of fire staff; apart from the labour unrest it will unleash, civil service is a big consumption driver in most states. Cut salaries or sack people, and consumption will collapse. Meanwhile, same states require infrastructure they can’t afford.

What gives? 1. We must boost staff productivity. If you want to keep your job, it must come with doing twice as much as you currently do as a government employee. 2. Cut leakages - central procurement, essential travel only, regular payroll audits.

But the big job is boosting productivity. Agric - focus on input improvement, irrigation, land clearing, extension services, farm roads. If states invest in these, Private Capital will come to build processing capacity and guarantee market.

Also need to connect infrastructure to viability. If we build infrastructure, priority must be on fiscally neutral projects - tolled roads, billed water infrastructure etc. The days of building fancy roads without the associated traffic are over.

Focus on investment promotion. If you can’t attract private capital into your state, it’s game over. Ease of doing business, structured IPAs, proper PPP laws etc are the minimum requirements now. Won’t happen overnight, but the best time to start is now.