I've identified my #1 revelation in this crisis:

People (all of us) take very complicated things and try to explain them in terms we can comprehend

If our rationalizations make sense, we decide that's the truth. We do not seek further evidence. We just decide what the truth is.

Why are things with COVID-19 so uniquely bad in NYC?

The real true answer (at this moment) is: we don't know. There are a million variables and this thing is complicated as hell!

But some people have landed on urban density or subways and they decided that is the answer.

I've seen people postulate that the COVID strain in NYC is somehow more dangerous or virulent than the COVID strain on the west coast.

It *must* be, they reason, b/c what else could explain the astounding mortality differences?

But we have no evidence this is true.

And I take these theories and wonder how people could believe them in the absence of evidence and I realize this is the sort of thing I've been doing *for years* on all sorts of topics.

MOST of what I've thought as true in politics is weak post-hoc rationalization.

Sure, I can find some data that will justify my absurd theory, but ultimately the world is too complex for that. The truth is hidden under layers of complexity, but that is too much for my brain to handle so I fall back to any simple explanation that fits the data.

Be wary of people who have answers at this moment.

In truth, no one has answers. A few people will claim to have answers that seem validated in a few months, but most of them just got lucky with random guessing.

People will postulate 10 theories and a few months later one will come true and they will point back to the one guess as proof of their brilliance.

Don't fall for it.

Know when things are uncertain and be able to work within the uncertainty.