Some thoughts before I try and go to sleep (again). *IF* Miami trades up from 5 to 3 and takes Tua, the price on the trade will tell the story. I won’t even tell you the terms I heard because they’re insanely cheap and I’m skeptical. But if they’re right, it would tell the story.

If the price is cheap then all the talk we heard about Chargers or Jags moving up to the Giants pick for Tua was just that, talk. Cheap terms speaks to four guys who know each other well (Quinn, Patricia, Grier, Flores) agreeing to a win-win friends and family deal.

If you’re Chris Grier, doing a trade that wins on paper (vs trade chart) gives you a PR boost as GM. Also, there’s a reason most teams in recent history traded up for their franchise QBs. You don’t want to give the perception you bargain shopped the cornerstone of your franchise.

If you’re Detroit, you can and absolutely will tell everybody you got the same player at 5 that you would’ve gotten at 3, except now he’s on a cheaper contract, and you picked up some free draft compensation for the trouble. You say it’s a win-win-win, regardless of chart value.

Detroit‘s been signaling a little desperate lately on the trade down thing so this would all make sense.

But what about the other possibility? What if Miami pays a really high price on this move?

That’s when you know that the threats of other teams trying to get Tua were real.

Of course, now that I say all that, watch Miami trade up and take Tristan Wirfs at 3 overall, and then hope to pick up Jordan Love at 18. That would be really risky. And more than a little surprising. But as I’ve been onto Love for two years, I can’t say it would be dooming.

If it did happen, the Jordan Love thing, you’d have to look back on it and say ultimately this is about getting a QB whose mobility isn’t threatened by a medical issue. Dolphins have Chan Gailey at OC for a reason. They want a dynamic offense, and it starts at QB. We’ll see.

I’m not dithering. I’m not giving percentages. I’m not implying the Dolphins are still waffling, as I’m sure they will have been leaning toward whatever decision they’ve landed on weeks ago. Let’s not be naive. I strongly believe this is all about Tua. But I’ve been wrong before.

One last thought. *IF* Miami end up with Jordan Love, or any QB not named Tua or Herbert, comparisons to 2007 write themselves. That year, even personnel staff thought Brady Quinn was the guy. Only three people in the room knew: Randy Mueller, Cam Cameron, and Wayne Huizenga.

Dolphins decided in 2007 & 2008 picking up a key offensive cog and THEN the QB gives them a better chances of success than just focusing on QB. Trading up for a OT and then getting a QB later would be eerily reminiscent of Ginn/Beck, and Long/Henne. Media/fans will be vicious.