Working from home, avoiding airplanes, online shopping, using more plastic -- many of the behaviors we’re learning in lockdown will stay with us beyond it. That will reshape the future of oil demand.

But how?

Take work from home. BloombergNEF finds that every 5% decrease in Americans commuting to the office erases about 100,000 barrels a day of demand. If every American worked 1 day a week from home, that would be like eliminating all of the consumption in Greece.

On the other hand, a fear of crowded buses or subways could lead to more people driving. That’s what’s happening in China, where 10 million more vehicles are on the roads while inter-city public transport has cratered.

The rise of online shopping means more delivery trucks and fewer drives to the mall, which shifts use from gasoline to diesel. It could eventually speed up the shift to electrification, as it will make economic sense for fleets to do it before individual drivers.

Jet fuel is in for a rough future as businesses will likely curb travel budgets and unpleasant quarantine restrictions deter travelers. Meanwhile the pandemic could bring new life to single-use plastics, with safety and sanitation becoming so important.

Is it enough to mean that we’ve already hit peak oil demand? Most experts I spoke with said no. There’s still going to be economic growth and more drivers. But the shape of that future demand has changed.

Read the full story here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/lockdown-lifestyles-are-reshaping-the-future-of-oil-demand