Probably okay but this is something to watch. Despite ROSCOSMOS and NASA maintaining usage of PPE and strict quarantine, its hard to tell how much interaction Rogozin and especially Mikrin had with the Expedition 63 crew. Slight concern for hitting 20th anniversary this year. https://twitter.com/chelsea_gohd/status/1252752883709288450
Starting a thread as the possibilities here are very intriguing. This is all my pure speculation. I looked at the manifests and did a little digging for this. I hope for more informed opinions. So, the next Progress resupply mission is due to dock with ISS on April 24.
3/Let’s say COVID-19 survives in space and got onto Progress MS-14. The virus could spread to the astronauts. There are only 4 hours between launch and docking. Better yet, based on MS-12’s launch
4/...info from http://RussianSpaceWeb.com , there seem to be about 9 days between the sealing of the vehicle and launch. Plus, we don’t know how COVID-19 survives the extreme temperatures, G-forces, and lack of full-life support on-board Progress.
5/But let’s say progress does bring COVID-19 to the ISS. There are currently 33 days between the arrival of Progress MS-14 and the arrival of Crew Dragon at ISS. This would be enough time for the current crew to show symptoms of infection.
6/Let’s say MS-16 (current crew) was infected on April 9, according to the New York Post article. Although Rogozin, according to Harry Pettit is “...not believed to have tested positive”, if he did somehow manage to asymptomatically spread it to the crew,
7/...then their first symptoms (if they have it) would’ve shown either yesterday (14 days from launch) or will show in the next few coming days. The photos show Rogozin, who interacted with Mikrin who tested positive, talking to the current crew before launch from 6 feet away.
8/He doesn’t appear in photos to be wearing an N95 mask and some reports indicate he did remove it at some points in his interaction
with the current crew.
with the current crew.
9/The ISS does have meds on board to treat a wide variety of ailments, but they do not have the ability to treat novel viral infections.
10/If it is on-board, coronavirus droplets would have a time moving around the station as the air is circulated and scrubbed. We dont yet know how COVID-19 survives in space and if it can at all, but this could be an interesting research opportunity if they do indeed have it.
11/There are no COVID-19 tests on the ISS. Despite the scientific possibilities, coming home with respiratory problems will not be fun. During Apollo 7, the astronauts got head colds and all infected each other. They insisted that they not wear their helmets, as sneezing could be
12/... extremely harmful in a closed pressure environment. Again, Covid-19 symptoms do not include sneezing, so we’ll have to wait to see if this is a problem. COVID has other symptoms besides respitory as well, like diarrhea or runny nose.
13/We should be reminded also that ASTRONAUTS ARE EXTREMELY HEALTHY PEOPLE. This may be a factor in their recovery outlook. Needless to say, abandoning the station in the next several days would make it the first time ISS has been without human occupants in 19 YEARS.
14/Let’s say if they do have it, then that could mean they would’ve spread it to the departing Expedition 62, who left 7 days ago. However, as the current crew docked 15 days ago, that would leave an 8 day period between when the current crew arrived and the last one left.
15/We are now at 6 days since the previous crew (Exp 62) landed back on earth. They left and landed April 17th. So. What does the future look like then?
16/The next mission, SpaceX DM-2, is May 27th. It is set to dock on May 28th. There are now 35 days until this next human mission docks to the ISS. The Spacex astronauts could spread it from there, but NASA crew ops seem to be taking proper precautions, so far.
17/ But again, you never know. If the crew, which will host 5 people as of May 28, turns out not to have it in June, the ISS is safe as the DM-2 crew does not return until probably August. The Expedition 63 crew does not return till October.
18/However, when DM-2 joins the current crew, it will all become Exp 63. The next crew to arrive will be MS-17 on October 14, 2020 as well as a Boeing mission and spacex mission in late 2020. Should the virus come back later this year,
19/...this could have ramifications for the manifest and crew rotation. The crew of MS-17 will need to be kept healthy, otherwise the current crew could be up there for more than 7 months until an unspecified date.
20/So, in summary, if the current crew has it, we’d probably know by now. If it gets into the station from a cargo craft, we will know before the next crew arrives. If they have it, they might need to come back or their great health would help recovery (maybe).
21/If the next crew brings coronavirus to the ISS, we’ll know by mid-June, and then, we might need to abandon ISS for the first time in 19 years.
22/If COVID-19 does come back later this year, the ISS could get into a serious situation in which Astronauts are on board for 7 months to an unspecified date. Something to watch. Especially as the 20th anniversary of human occupancy is later this year.
23/ I’d like to thank @chelsea_gohd for her article which was the starting point for this thread and @nypost which gave more detail to a few pieces of this. Thanks for reading and taking the time. I’m now very tired. Gn.
24/ OH ALSO THANKS TO @RussianSpaceWeb FOR THE GREAT WEBSITE. Soyuz launch info can be hard to track down so Anatoly’s site is like the best resource on the web!