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#nuketwitter! @csisponi released its On The Radar project final report "Under the Nuclear Shadow" https://ontheradar.csis.org/analysis/final-report/ during lockdown week 1. 
ICYMI This 2-yr effort funded by @CarnegieCorp takes an innovative look at emerging tech and nuclear crises. I'm re-upping 1/11
ICYMI This 2-yr effort funded by @CarnegieCorp takes an innovative look at emerging tech and nuclear crises. I'm re-upping 1/11
For this study, alongside project partners @areddie89 @bethanygoldblum @ucb_npwg we published a series of tech and country primers and ran 8 tabletop exercises to help understand emerging surveillance tech during nuclear crises. Philip Reiner @Tech4GS helped too! [2/11]
The exercises included approx. 150 people from across the nuclear policy and tech fields: senior experts, mid-career professionals, & next-gen scholars. The two scenarios explored crises between the United States and China, as well as the United States and North Korea. [3/11]
We drew from expertise in the wargaming community to develop the exercises and understand their limitations. Our analysis tries to illuminate discussions and decisionmaking around these emerging technologies, not create replicable, quantified data. [4/11]
This thread https://twitter.com/StaciePettyjohn/status/1197155766404288512 by @StaciePettyjohn summarizes one aspect we tried to highlight: âwargames can be more than simply âstoriesâ & can be used to analyze or evaluate ideas or concepts in which human decision making is central.â [5/11]
This @WarOnTheRocks piece https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/getting-the-most-out-of-your-wargame-practical-advice-for-decision-makers/ by @elliebartels was similarily informative: âgames can be used during an emerging crisis to consider how best to move forward.â [6/11]
what were some trends we noticed? The tech teams often suggested collection plans based on a technologyâs expected value in providing situational awareness, while the policy teams were generally much more concerned about signaling and escalation risks. [7/11]
Policy teams also placed a high value on traditional, Western interpretations of sovereignty and intrusiveness. These concerns pushed them towards disapproving capabilities deemed provocative or escalatory -- something we came to recognize as "escalation anxiety." [8/11]
What did I learn? A lot. My biggest takeaway? Technology and psychology are inseparable when it comes to crisis decisionmaking. More advanced the tech, more important the linkage. So much so that we labeled information complexity as a primary potential escalation pathway. [9/11]
![What did I learn? A lot. My biggest takeaway? Technology and psychology are inseparable when it comes to crisis decisionmaking. More advanced the tech, more important the linkage. So much so that we labeled information complexity as a primary potential escalation pathway. [9/11]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWPRAcLXQAAVTpO.png "What did I learn? A lot. My biggest takeaway? Technology and psychology are inseparable when it comes to crisis decisionmaking. More advanced the tech, more important the linkage. So much so that we labeled information complexity as a primary potential escalation pathway. [9/11]")
For more on this also see our event on Decision-making and Technology Under the Nuclear Shadow with Robert Jervis, @peterwsinger @kath_hicks and Avril Haines at https://www.csis.org/events/decisionmaking-and-technology-under-nuclear-shadow [10/11]
For more analysis from the tabletop exercises and our reportâs conclusions and recommendations, the full report can be found here https://ontheradar.csis.org/analysis/final-report/. . Thanks for listening! [11/11]
