If you want to create great products, you *must* have focused use cases, not make some general purpose thing. This is one of many lessons and concepts in my essay about category-defining products, and timely now that @MagicLeap has predictably pivoted. https://nickpunt.com/blog/category-defining-products/

Augmented Reality is stuck in a kind of trough in between scifi depictions and clear killer app that shows what AR uniquely does that will improve our lives. Magic Leap had a billion $ to explore that, and as far as I can tell did little to improve our understanding of AR's value

Lacking a killer app, Magic Leap marketed itself as a 'do everything' device, a general purpose AR solution to all sorts of use cases. But therein lies a trap. General purpose means serving many masters and chasing fidelity, which means bulky form factor and disappointing results

This is not the only time tech has fallen into this trap. Devices like General Magic & Newton in the 90s chased general purpose use and failed because no single use case was well articulated or executed. ML had the same misguided excitement, confusing possibility for product.

An alternate path is to explore what is possible in the absence of high fidelity experience, since that is years away. What does AR uniquely offer that smartphones don't? How do you get the most out of this new form factor and unlock things that never were possible before?

AR glasses have two unique properties:
1. Always-on display
2. Hands free action

There's a lot you can do with those, and it doesn't involve super high resolution dinosaurs.

For instance, AR glasses are ideally suited for place-based passive notifications. These are different from typical attention-grabbing notifications that take you out of the world. They're in-world options, FYIs, hey something is here you should check out. That's powerful!

In particular, this capability unlocks certain types of game experiences and interest layers atop our world. Having that passive awareness significantly lowers friction to engagement, which would typically mean grabbing your phone out of your pocket.

Kids (and adults) already construct social layers atop the world, places that are shared hang outs, private hideaways, dropped messages, etc. AR could replicate this, bringing more magic into the world through scavenger hunts, claimed areas, etc.

This is why I think a game like Minecraft Earth is an ideal vehicle for early AR success. It unlocks the killer app: a game world in the real world, leveraging a beloved brand and style of play. I'd love to see MS create cheap custom hardware for this. https://nickpunt.com/blog/minecraft-earth-should-be-the-first-ar-killer-app/

In addition to place-based notifications, AR is also suited for any tasks that you needed visual information while also having your hands free. Working out and building / fixing something are two obvious use cases. This capability skews more enterprise though, especially training

For hands-free needs, input becomes critical. The smartphone is a good enough substitute if you're just going to reach down and occasionally press a button. But if you can't, AR needs input. This is where eye tracking comes into play and complements the heads up display.

Using eye tracking for UI can cause fatigue, so it'd need to be used sparsely. Play, pause, do over, yes/no prompts, etc. Not navigating complex UIs. This limits and focuses AR use cases, and means hand/finger tracking is also required. But that's getting complex & not for v1.

There's some value to be unlocked simply by having hands free video, more w/ eye & hand tracking, and more yet with object detection. But its a slow burn, not punctuated, and run at the speed that enterprises can adapt. Set your expectations accordingly.

Meanwhile in consumer-land, I think its going to be about place-based notification layers with game-like experiences coupled w/ smartphone for occasional input. It'll also be used as companion display for smartphone info.

I imagine v1 of Apple AR glasses will keep display off until some relevant info is around, then smartphone tells it to turn on and show info pop up in direction you're facing, and if you want to do something with that you pull out your phone. Very, very passive.

For active things it'll keep display on, like map directions, current workout, current phone call, etc. Over time it'll get power budget to do more, but I'd set expectations low, expect one or two clear use cases, and focus on simply making the platform fashionable.

Remember one of Apple Watch's killer features was notifications - it let you discreetly know what was going on without pulling out your phone. I think this is an area where tech people have a blind spot - the value regulars place on keeping informed, knowing what's going on, etc

Given AR is a physical presence platform first and foremost, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple decided to build out a social layer to complement AR glasses, especially events. To prime the pump they could acquire Eventbrite. Build the iTunes equivalent for place-based social.

They also need to build out a new type of notification layer for developers because users shouldn't have to open apps to see what's going on. Instead, devs could either create new layers or publish to existing use-case based ones (e.g. music, hangouts, etc)

Given AR like Watch is a much more constrained channel, it also reveals the limitations of iOS and how it is designed around apps as the central UX pivot point. Apple will need to evolve this to fully support AR.

This is where AR starts to intersect with some work I've been doing on what shape future computing experiences might take. Specifically, organizing around needs & life facets, rather than apps. We don't think in apps, nor should our face-computer force that structure on us.

This thread wouldn't be complete without mentioning coronavirus. Any platform that is primarily place-based is going to have to face the reality that for years to come there will be greater cultural aversion to being out-and-about.