NEW: Wed 22 April update of coronavirus trajectories

Daily deaths
• Still too early to say if US has peaked
• UK daily deaths have peaked
• But descents look much slower than ascents
• Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria

Live charts
Why do I say UK daily deaths have peaked?

New chart: week-on-week change in daily deaths.

This gets rid of weekly reporting patterns and asks, are more people dying than at same point last week?

In UK, blue bars mean we’re now seeing *fewer* deaths than same day last week.
This set of charts remains good for tracking whether or not a country has reached its peak etc, but we’re now also tracking total excess mortality.

My colleague @ChrisGiles_ estimates UK excess deaths linked to covid far exceed daily reported numbers
Now back to cumulative deaths:
• US death is highest worldwide and still rising fast Chart with upwards trend
• UK curve still matching Italy’s
• Australia still looks promising

All charts:
Daily new cases
• Daily confirmed infections in US may have peaked, but descent is slow
• New cases falling in countries that acted early: New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Austria
• Greece & Singapore 📈 = new cases among migrant communities forced to live in crowded conditions
Cases in cumulative form:
• US curve beginning to taper?
• Turkey still battling a severe outbreak
• Japan has passed Korea’s total, Singapore has passed Japan’s curve: both show the danger of thinking a country has dealt with covid

All charts:
Subnational region daily deaths:
• NY daily confirmed covid deaths now descending (we’re excluding nursing homes for consistency)
• Daily London deaths also appear to have peaked
• Most Western cities/regions now in plateau or decline phase

All charts:
Subnational death tolls cumulatively:
• NY curve tapering, but has passed Lombardy for world’s highest subnational death toll

All charts:
Covid outbreaks better understood at regional level than national; here are >100 regions:
• Rio de Janeiro 📈
• 34 US states now shown
• Stockholm yet to peak
• Sicily, Sardinia, Balearics, Canaries all low curves: do islands fare better?

All charts:
Small multiples for daily new deaths in countries:
• Norway locked down while Sweden didn’t; Norway’s daily death toll rising much more slowly than Sweden’s
• Australia faring well
• In Europe, Austria, Denmark, Norway faring well

All charts:
New daily cases in 80 countries:
• Adding more African and other emerging-market countries every day
• Bangladesh 📈
• Early action in Australia & New Zealand may have turned corner 🇦🇺🇳🇿📉
• Watch as European countries ease lockdowns 👀

All charts:
I talk a lot about whether or not peaks have been reached.

A good metric for this is hospitalisations:
• More reliable than confirmed cases (not influenced by testing regimes)
• Shorter lag than deaths

So here are some charts showing hospitalisations in various countries:
First, Italy:

Colour = phase of outbreak
• Red: more new hospitalisations every day than day before
• Orange: total hospitalisations rising, but rate of increase slowing
• Blue: fewer people in hospital than before

Almost all Italian regions now in "reduction" phase :-)
Next, Spain:
• Madrid now firmly in "reduction" phase, Catalonia fighting to get back into reduction
• I’ve removed other Spanish regions due to problems with their hospitalisation data
• All regions beginning to see total occupancy fall, including former epicentres Ile de France & Grand Est
• Hospitalisation data patchy from state to state
• NY & Louisiana both in the "reduction" phase, hospital bed occupancy dropping
• NJ & Colorado also now into net reduction
• Connecticut on the path towards falling occupancy
Great Britain:
• Hospitals in almost every region now have fewer covid patients than same time last week 👍
• Suggests UK is at or near peak for new confirmed infections, though UK testing still lagging, and care homes of course absent from this view
• Sweden has not locked down like most places
• Data show Swedes moving around less than usual, but still plenty of socialising, closer to normal life than most countries
• But data now show more people leaving hospital than entering 📉
Wrapping up: our focus has now shifted to tracking excess all-cause mortality (numbers of people dying for any reason at all) as we think this avoids pitfalls of different countries’ covid-death reporting methodologies.

So my call-out tonight is:
Final bits:

Here’s a video where I explain why we’re using log scales, showing absolute numbers instead of per capita, and much more:
And a chart showing why we're using absolute numbers rather than population-adjusted rates:
Please email [email protected] with feedback, requests & subnational data.

All of these are invaluable, and we incorporate your suggestions and data every day.

We’ll keep getting back to as many people as possible.

Have a good night, folks :-)
No food pics tonight, but a playlist recommendation, courtesy of my better half:

This is such a tune, and perfect backing for getting focused work done
You can follow @jburnmurdoch.
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