The big differences between coronavirus models show us how little we still know about this disease and what’s in store for us. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html @qdbui @jshkatz @aliciaparlap
They differ by a lot, and they each include big uncertainty ranges. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html
It's really hard to model anything about the future of this epidemic when epidemiologists know so little about how many people have it, how easily it spreads, who it is most likely to kill, or even how many deaths it has caused with precision. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html
Still, of the various models we examined, one has consistently shown the most optimistic medium-term scenario. It's the one the White House has been using for its policy planning. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html
None of these models makes any predictions outside of a very short time window. It's important to remember that coronavirus is going to be with us for much longer than 6 weeks. Also important: All of these models assume current social distancing policies remain in place.
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