NEW: Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the centuries old immigration-disease trope is being used to change immigration and asylum policies. What does the empirical evidence show? Findings below https://bit.ly/3cEf8g7  1/

I analyze the relationship between the prevalence of the flu using monthly CDC data from fy 2000 to present and immigration indicators specific to the southern border, our asylum process, as well as USCIS approvals across all visa application types 2/

From fy 2000 to present (which includes H1N1 and current COVID-19 pandemics), there is no statistically significant relationship (contemporaneous or lagged) between persons entering the U.S. through all southern border ports of entry and the prevalence of the flu 3/

Neither the number of persons requesting asylum nor the number of credible fear interviews where fear is established (which begins the process of admitting an asylum seeker into the U.S.) is statistically significantly related (contemporaneous or lagged) to flu prevalence 4/

The figure above includes the entirety of publicly available data from USCIS on credible fear case receipts (fy 2009 to present), as well as the entirety of publicly available data from USCIS on credible fear interviews where fear is established (fy 2011 to present) 5/

From fy 2012 to present, there is no statistically significant relationship (contemporaneous or lagged) between the quarterly total number of USCIS approvals across all visa application types and the prevalence of the flu (these data are only publicly available quarterly) 6/

I detail different models I use and dozens of different model specification that I run in the report. Whereas the administration may want see relationships where there aren’t any, however I look at the data, the results are statistically insignificant 7/

I conclude that the results bolster arguments that the Trump administration may, indeed, be using the global COVID-19 pandemic as a guise to further change U.S. immigration policies https://www.justsecurity.org/69640/coronavirus-border-expulsions-cdcs-assault-on-asylum-seekers-and-unaccompanied-minors/ 8/

The global COVID-19 pandemic has changed our lives in unprecedented ways and it is incumbent upon all of us, including our decision makers, to rely on the best available empirical evidence, not centuries old anti-immigrant tropes, to help chart our path forward 9/

We're a strong and resilient country and we'll overcome our current moment. But the onset of a global pandemic does not absolve us from our legal obligations to provide due process to asylum seekers, nor should it be used as an opportunity to slam shut our golden doors \\end