I had been struggling for a while to get my head around the argument, made by @BillHanage, @NateSilver538 and others on this website today, that antibody test results from places with low infection rates will be much less reliable than those from places with high rates 1/5
So yesterday I tried the Gerd Gigerenzer et. al. approach of converting percentages to numbers, which is described in the article below. It worked! So here goes ... 2/5 https://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/pspi/pspi_8_2_article.pdf">https://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/...
There& #39;s a population of 100 people and you give them a test with a (very high) specificity of 99%, meaning that it gives a false positive result only 1% of the time. So in your population of 100, you can expect to get 1 false positive. 3/5