For weeks now, @ColinPClarke & I have been trying to ring the alarm bells that US-Iran tensions are brewing and increasing slowly but surely without most Americans noticing.

Why are we so concerned?

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COVID-19 hasn't slowed down the tensions between the two sides, it's exacerbated them. Neither side has showed a willingness to back down from its policy.

The Trump admin introduced new sanctions even as Iran was grappling with the outbreak. Iran has resumed provoking actions.

In Iraq, Iranian proxies have been targeting American facilities and troops. 2 Americans were killed in Iraq (and most Americans don't even know this). In the Persian Gulf, the IRGC has been harassing the US Navy. And now the reports that Iran launched a military satellite.

Why?

Some in the Trump admin believe Iran is about to collapse and it just needs a push from the US. Nevermind that this is not entirely accurate, it's also debatable whether it'd be a good outcome in the middle of this crisis (Phil Gordon and I wrote about this in the Post).

For its part, Iran has utterly botched its response to COVID-19 and that's created tensions at home and led to embarrassment abroad. So, it's eager to distract from the response to the pandemic and show strength.

Meanwhile, Iran sees the US as weaker than it's been.

The US, too, has struggled with its response to the disease (for some of the same reasons as Iran, incidentally). And it's also eager to build leverage over the next few months and embarrass President Trump.

To achieve all this, Iran's opened several fronts on the kinetic side (Iraq and the Persian Gulf), backed by a robust disinformation campaign (look no further than Iran-linked accounts' activity around Trump's tweets and the recent tensions).

As @ColinPClarke & I have warned repeatedly (and as I wrote in an edited volume by @JarrettBlanc & @franceszbrown), the road to the 2020 presidential elections will be hard one and if we come out of it without a major incident, it'll be luck not the result of smart policy.