Turkey has belatedly signed up for the Graham-Trump “keep them boxed and let’s talk to avoid sanctions” option on S-400 deployment. That option is built around the nebulous idea how to codify and make permanent the “keep it boxed” option. This remains a poor place to be in.

Per work with @DaveSchmerler , it appears that S400 has been stored at Murted since late November. Recent sat photos from April don’t suggest they’ve been removed from storage

As @RALee85 has noted from his following of the Russian media, Turkish personnel have finished training and all S400 infrastructure has been delivered. So timing on making operational is, I would guess, a political decision

I assume the Turkish decision is informed by CAATSA risk and, critically, the likelihood that sanctions wording floating around since October 2019 will be included in the House and Senate versions of the NDAA. That language is being drafted now from quarantine.

Turkey can always reverse it’s political decision and decision and deploy — and they have made clear that will activate the system at some point.

I suspect the political decision making in Ankara has to do with talks on with Fed on US liquidity swaps + chronic economic mismanagement in TR playing a major role finally catching up amidst the struggle to deal with Covid-19.

The bottom line, however, is unchanged. Ankara has S400. CAATSA is what it is. Turkey has lost F-35. Its facing a soft arms embargo already. If we’re serious, now is time to think how to keep it boxed for good.