#covid19 presser @WHO starts with @DrTedros saying almost 2,5 million cases have now been reported to WHO and more than 160,000 deaths. "We see different trends in different regions and even within regions”, he says.
"Most of the epidemics in Western Europe appear to be stable or declining”, he says. But says there are "worrying upward trends in Africa, Central and South America and Eastern Europe”.
"Most countries are still in the early stages of their epidemics”, says @DrTedros. In other places that were affected early by #covid19, there is a resurgence in cases. "Make no mistake: we have a long way to go. This virus will be with us for a long time."
Alludes to early results from serology studies. Says evidence suggests most of the world#S population is still susceptible to #SARSCoV2. “One of the greatest dangers we face now is complacency”, says @drtedros.
Says he understands people want to go back to their normal lives. "But the world will not and cannot go back to the way things were. There must be a 'new normal’."
Reiterates need to find every case, isolate it, trace contacts and quarantine them, as well as educating and engaging people. Countries that do not do this “will see more cases, and more lives will be lost”, says @drtedros.
Q whether this means not seeing parents/grandparents for months? @mvankerkhove
says there may be situations where measures can be lifted, but it will have to be done in a controlled way. Says, of course, video calls are "absolutely not the same thing as giving them a hug.”
In many societies, older people live in generational families and are continuing to do so, says @DrMikeRyan. But in Europe and North America, there were devastating outbreaks in long-term care facilities, he says. "That risk continues as long as the virus is here."
Each country is going to have to think about how to minimise the risk of bringing #covid19 into such facilities, says @DrMikeRyan. Says there are lots of measures. And countries also need to look at how to make sure such outbreaks are detected early.
Interesting about travel from @drmikeryan: Says opening up global travel will require risk equalisation. Means: If two places have similar control of outbreak and are confident in each other’s measures, "movement of people between those places does not add risk to that country”.
Q from India: If @DrTedros could go back, would he call pandemic earlier. @DrMikeRyan goes first:
Says @WHO raised its highest level of alert under international law on January 30 by calling #PHEIC. Makes the point that calling it a pandemic does not have concrete consequences.
. @drtedros mirrors Ryan’s comments. von PHEIC "As Mike said the highest emergency as far as IHR is concerned was declared on January 30”. Mentions number of cases then: "We triggered the highest level of emergency when the rest of the world had only 82 cases and no deaths. "
“So looking back I think we declared the emergency at the right time and when the rest of the world had enough time to respond”, says @DrTedros. Says it is was early enough to stop the pandemic.
Q about role of Africa in response. @drmikeryan mentions development and testing of #Ebola treatment in DRC. “We need to leverage the capacity that exists in Africa, the innovation, the science." Says studies done in Africa should be led by scientists from African institutions.
He also talks about impressive way that South Africa is bringing #covid19 under control incl. using 57 mobile lab units and training a large number of community health workers. (Did not get all the numbers, will tweet those later)
Q from Greece asking for confirmation of a call between WHO and UEFA discussing suspending championships until end of 2020. @DrMikeRyan says he’s not aware of that, but that soccer games represent mass gatherings and that bringing these back will involve a lot of planning.
“You're never going to reach the point where there is absolute scientific evidence that it is safe to bring 10 people together… or 10,000”, says @DrMikeRyan. For now: in presence of virus large numbers of people gathering in close quarters will lead to amplification of virus.
Q from Argentina about trajectory of pandemic in S America.
Increasing trends in several places says @mvankerkhove. “Of cours this is a worry.” Once virus takes hold it can replicate extremely fast with doubling times of 3 two 4 days. But still time to suppress virus, she says.
Important question about how #covid19 is impacting fighting other diseases.
@DrMikeRyan says all countries face that issue. An emergency like #covid19 "diverts attention, it diverts time, and it can divert ressources as well”.
Q what WHO can do about religious gatherings still going on in some countries and protests against lockdown.
@DrMikeRyan says WHO “has no power to enforce” only “power to persuade.” Says WHO can lay out evidence-based strategy and engage with countries.
I asked what @WHO has learnt from dealing with community protests for instance around #Ebola in W Africa or DRC that could guide responses now in US and other places. "All situations are different and all societies are different”, says @DrMikeRyan but then makes great points:
Says level of trust between citizens and government is key in epidemic control. When people are asked to do something on trust, like end their social life, "they have to fundamentally believe that someone has a plan and there are reasons for doing this and there will be an end."
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