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New clues emerge as to the differences in the anatomy of the spread of the virus in CA and across the US. Santa Clara, CA, discovers the first COVID-19 death was Feb 5, 2020. /thread
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/autopsies-find-first-us-coronavirus-death-occurred-in-early-february-weeks-earlier-than-previously-thought/ar-BB131mhb
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/autopsies-find-first-us-coronavirus-death-occurred-in-early-february-weeks-earlier-than-previously-thought/ar-BB131mhb
Why is this significant? The first reason is straightforward: it pushes the origins of the outbreak in the US from Feb 27, 2020 in Washington back to Feb 5 in Santa Clara, CA. /2 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/autopsies-find-first-us-coronavirus-death-occurred-in-early-february-weeks-earlier-than-previously-thought/ar-BB131mhb
The next reason may not be immediately obvious to the WAPO writer, who seems focused on reason 1. But catch the quote in the article from the Santa Clara physician and county exec. His mind's wheels are turning: "...it's been around for *a lot longer* than we realized..." /3
From the official Santa Clara health website press release on this discovery, we learn the first COVID-19 death in the county was previously thought to be Mar 9, 2020. This discovery pushes the timeline back over a month. /4
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/press-release-04-21-20-early.aspx
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/press-release-04-21-20-early.aspx
There are a few more interesting facts in the PR. Officials are announcing not just one newly discovered COVID-19 death prior to Mar 9, but actually *three* new deaths. There was one confirmed on Mar 6, another on Feb 17, and the earliest one on Feb 5, 2020. /5
All three deaths occurred in each victim's home. Nothing was included in the PR about the age of the victims, but it would be likely these are elderly individuals. The fact that they didn't present at a hospital emergency room is one reason this wasn't discovered earlier. /6
Another interesting fact in the press release: no known travel history so no test was administered which was the operational guidelines from CSC for administering tests at that point. /7
Why is this so significant? Well, if they have no known travel history, then they most likely got it through community spread, no? /8
So expect more press releases in from CA in the near future. They are systematically reviewing earlier deaths across the county. /9
Also, note this interesting little tidbit discovered in a Jan 12, 2020 article in Palo Alto online: "...and hospitalizations for the flu - deemed normal as of Dec 21 - are now unusually high as well. /10
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/01/12/californias-flu-season-started-early-but-santa-clara-county-cases-are-low--so-far
https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/01/12/californias-flu-season-started-early-but-santa-clara-county-cases-are-low--so-far
Is it possible that the outbreak started in CA in late Dec 2019 or early Jan 2020? CA in general has much higher than normal travel to and from China as compared to most other US states. If it did, what would the anatomy of the COVID-19 outbreak look like? /11
What I mean is this: if you had never heard of COVID-19, wouldn't the beginning of the outbreak look somewhat like the flu? Wait, stop! Yes, I know that the common flu doesn't kill 30K-40K people in a month. CV-19 is *much more* contagious. /12
But that accelerated contagion will be masked if you aren't aware of it, *and* if the acceleration is somewhat throttled by a largely suburban population. CA has huge cities, no doubt, but the calling card of CA's urban centers is highway traffic. /13
How much of your perception of the contagious nature & destructive power of COVID-19 is colored by watching NYC and its surrounding communities? NYC's calling cards are Rapid transit-hardly anyone has a car in the city, elevators, dense foot traffic, multi-generational homes. /14
What if NYC was structurally an accelerant to an already highly contagious virus? If the underground subways were a large, contributing factor to its super-acceleration, wouldn't you see articles like this? /15 https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-mta-nyc-transit-workers-deaths-20200408-f37damz5tjdmnc4pahurf3cjay-story.html
What if outside of large urban centers dominated by underground rapid transit (iow, most of the US) it spreads at a fast pace, but not so fast that it overwhelms hospitals and ICUs? Wouldn't you see something like CA is experiencing? /16
While CA officials deserve credit for starting their aggressive mitigation a few days earlier than NY, I think that credit is overstated. I am not buying that if they had waited two or three more days that LA would look like NY. /18
Both LA County and Santa Clara County have had popl studies show that the virus was firmly seeded *well* before they initiated a lockdown. /19
https://twitter.com/CJinKnoxTN/status/1251496907534471173 https://twitter.com/CJinKnoxTN/status/1252445012606038018
https://twitter.com/CJinKnoxTN/status/1251496907534471173 https://twitter.com/CJinKnoxTN/status/1252445012606038018
Plus, as we have covered in this thread, the report yesterday from Santa Clara showing definitively that it was in CA on Feb 5, and it is most likely there in the community (no known travel by the victims). Subsequent PRs will no doubt show earlier cases in CA into Jan. /20
We need to take *great care* with ourselves and with our most vulnerable populations. We need to make sure we respect the highly contagious and very destructive power of COVID-19. But with hyper attention to hygiene & mitigation, non-highly urban US needs to get back to work. /21
The anatomy of this virus for most of the US is shown in large populous states like CA and TX, and less dense states like TN, AR, and WY. Dense urban populations with lots of rapid transit traffic will have a much more complex road back to re-open, no doubt. /22
But for the rest of us: Let's get back to work *and* beat this virus. We can do both. /END
