The Heritage Foundation has released a re-opening plan woefully light on testing that's unlikely to put the economy on a path to recovery, but certain to get Americans killed. https://www.coronaviruscommission.com/recommendations?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTWpBd1lXUXlOVGcyWmpFMSIsInQiOiJ2eVwvZ3VqNUh3YnFaS0F1dktDc1wvS1FlbVNFdVp6dHNTM3NGQmFaVHpBUTYzOUc5MGNqSWdIXC9oOU5cLzBMK0x3SmVRZkNUWHlWeUlueWhXK0NUcTJDS2Z0YmhBZUE2Y0hNdXBGanE4VXNnQlZoNEo5bnZxa2gxZU9pNCtNNkp3SE0ifQ%3D%3D

I'd like to see epidemiologists and public health experts weigh on the Heritage plan, and quick, because I fear this is the way most R-led state are going. Until then, here's my take.

The plan DOES NOT prescribe a concerted ramp-up in the production and distribution of tests or in testing machine and lab capacity. It specifically rejects aiming for mass testing.

It says re-opening shouldn't wait on the availability of adequate testing capacity, and that, given the scarcity of tests, testing should be selective.

Now, everybody agrees that until there's enough testing capacity, testing should be focused on those who are most at risk and in the most critical public service and economic sectors. However ...

There is nothing in the Heritage plan to seriously addresses the shortage of tests, the supply chain and economic incentive problems that drive it, or the testing machine and lab capacity shortages that need to be overcome to produce expeditious test results at scale.

They just say business should take the lead in creating and distributing tests. But they won't, because what's in it for them? And then, AFTER the private sector somehow manifests testing capacity into reality, Congress should appropriate fund to pay for NECESSARY tests.

This is all so worrying because they recommend that places that currently have low infection rates start re-opening immediately. BUT THE RELIABILITY OF DATA ON INFECTION RATES DEPENDS ON AVAILABILITY OF TESTING CAPACITY.

They do recommend "targeted random-sample testing at the state and county levels" to get a better bead on incidence. But they don't say to do this BEFORE re-opening. And they have next to nothing to say about where the testing capacity needed to do it is supposed to come from.

Critically, there's NO credible public health analysis whatsoever of the likely effects of this approach on infections and deaths. None at all. But that's absolutely necessary to evaluate the likely economic effects. So it's no surprise that they don't do that, either.

They simply ASSUME that following the plan would have a more positive than negative economic effect overall. But there's no reason to believe that it would.

You can't say this sort of plan will get the economy going again unless you can credibly say that relaxing mass social distancing without testing won't just lead to new outbreaks and new shutdowns, stay-at-home, and shelter-in-place orders.

We can be sure that plans like this one will lead to many new infections and deaths. But Heritage is just HOPING that the attendant death and permanent health damage will turn out to be worth it, without offering ANY credible analysis to show that it would help the economy AT ALL

They also recommend wrecking America's public education system, but that's incidental. Anyway, as intellectually lightweight and morally irresponsible as this whole thing is, it needs serious scrutiny and criticism, because this is the direction lots of places are going. /end

Anyway, here's what we actually ought to do... https://www.niskanencenter.org/a-massive-surge-in-testing-is-the-only-way-to-safely-restore-our-liberty-and-economy/