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1. As someone who spent a lot of time in government dealing with how to respond to Iranian naval provocations let’s walk through why Trump’s tweet today is dangerous and unlikely to have the right result.
2. The IRGC Navy on a regular basis conducts provocative operations with its small boats where it comes dangerously close to US navy ships in the Gulf.
3. They aren’t looking for a war where they know they’d be blown out of the water. But they are trying remind the US they are there and asserting that this region is their’s and the US should get out.
4. Part of the reason we don’t end up in a war is because of the extraordinary discipline and professionalism of US sailors who warn the Iranians to get away and sometimes fire warning shots but avoid escalating
5. It’s a dangerous tactic by the Iranians and could certainly lead to unintended escalation. But the sides both know their roles and have done this enough that the results are usually predictable.
6. When the Iranians go too far we send them private messages that say “knock it off you’re about to go too far. you will suffer real consequences.” These messages register & the Iranians pull back for a while. It’s not ideal. But better than the alternatives.
7. When Trump loudly declares that the US will shoot Iranian boats out of the water he’s running an unnecessary risk. It could be that the Iranians get the message and pull back
8. In the aftermath of the Soleimani killing hopefully folks in Tehran conclude he’s just crazy enough to do something very stupid and pull back.
9. Or it could unnecessarily antagonize them by calling them out publicly in a way a private message would not. And they might decide to call his bluff especially since he has very little credibility.
10. Doing it publicly with so little nuance also could potentially box him in if the Iranians decide to test him, in a way that a private more carefully worded message would not
11. And it calls into question the rules of engagement for US sailors, which are designed to be restrained & avoid an unnecessary conflict. Do those still hold when the President is tweeting the opposite?
12. This by the way is a pattern this administration keeps repeating with the Iranians not just on naval issues but in Iraq and elsewhere.
13. Loud public chest thumping with the Iranians that gets their backs up as opposed to quietly telling them to knock it off & if necessary backing that quiet message with quiet action, which is historically much more effective.
14. Bottom line: these Iranian tactics are dangerous & unprofessional. But there is a smart way to deter them without dramatically raising the risk of escalation. It’s really not worth getting in a war over this. You can be sufficiently tough without thumping your chest.
