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US Coronavirus Update for Tuesday, April 21, 2020
~ A Tuesday spike
Fatalities first ~
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Tue, Apr 21: 44,638
• Increase in last 24 hours: 2,303 (+5%)
--> Deaths up sharply compared to Mon (+38%) & Sun (+46%)
--> A typical Tuesday spike
~ A Tuesday spike
Fatalities first ~
• Total US covid-19 deaths as of Tue, Apr 21: 44,638
• Increase in last 24 hours: 2,303 (+5%)
--> Deaths up sharply compared to Mon (+38%) & Sun (+46%)
--> A typical Tuesday spike
2/ Tuesdays have been showing a spike consistently in deaths, going back three Tuesdays.
Yesterday's jump comes on the heels of two days with the opposite — Sunday and Monday deaths lower than the recent curve.
Yesterday's jump comes on the heels of two days with the opposite — Sunday and Monday deaths lower than the recent curve.
3/ Here's context for the last three days — the fall and the rise in deaths:
New deaths, prior 24 hours:
Tue, 4/21: 2,303
Mon, 4/20: 1,669
Sun, 4/19: 1,576
Sat, 4/18: 2,268
Fri, 4/17: 3,538*
Thu, 4/16: 2,458
Wed, 4/15: 4,834*
Tue, 4/14: 2,388
–––
* State deaths added
New deaths, prior 24 hours:
Tue, 4/21: 2,303
Mon, 4/20: 1,669
Sun, 4/19: 1,576
Sat, 4/18: 2,268
Fri, 4/17: 3,538*
Thu, 4/16: 2,458
Wed, 4/15: 4,834*
Tue, 4/14: 2,388
–––
* State deaths added
4/ If you look back at the last 8 days of deaths, 2 things are clear:
• You have to set aside Wed & Thu, because those days, old deaths from various states were added
• Yesterday's deaths (Tue, 4/21) are right in line with what we would expect from Tue, Thu, Sat of last week
• You have to set aside Wed & Thu, because those days, old deaths from various states were added
• Yesterday's deaths (Tue, 4/21) are right in line with what we would expect from Tue, Thu, Sat of last week
5/ It is always worth pausing to appreciate:
2,303 deaths in 24 hours is 96 deaths an hour, every hour of Tuesday.
Tremendous pain, grief, dislocation.
One week ago — any day before April 14 — 2,303 covid-19 deaths would have been the highest ever.
2,303 deaths in 24 hours is 96 deaths an hour, every hour of Tuesday.
Tremendous pain, grief, dislocation.
One week ago — any day before April 14 — 2,303 covid-19 deaths would have been the highest ever.
6/ We need to be careful not to get numb to the scale of 2,303 deaths in a day.
At any point but the last 7 days, that would have been an arresting number.
In terms of the last week, it is a sign that deaths have reached this terrible plateau, but are not rising — in context.
At any point but the last 7 days, that would have been an arresting number.
In terms of the last week, it is a sign that deaths have reached this terrible plateau, but are not rising — in context.
7/ One side note:
A couple sources (World-0-Meters and the COVID Tracking Project) record yesterday, Tuesday, April 21, as the day of the highest US deaths so far.
That's a quirk of when you mark total deaths each day.
. . .
A couple sources (World-0-Meters and the COVID Tracking Project) record yesterday, Tuesday, April 21, as the day of the highest US deaths so far.
That's a quirk of when you mark total deaths each day.
. . .
8/ . . . There are 4 or 5 groups carefully recording deaths in the US and the world. It's a demanding project.
For this thread each day, I stick to one source: The Washington Post's world & US map and charts. That's the source I've used every day, data snapped as of midnight.
For this thread each day, I stick to one source: The Washington Post's world & US map and charts. That's the source I've used every day, data snapped as of midnight.
9/ The Washington Post uses the Johns Hopkins covid-tracking effort (and presents that data in fresh ways that makes it easy to see and understand).
The sources don't vary that much, surprisingly. A few dozen deaths and cases, sometimes more, at various times during a given day.
The sources don't vary that much, surprisingly. A few dozen deaths and cases, sometimes more, at various times during a given day.
10/ What's clear is that yesterday was a Tuesday, and showed a spike relative to the previous couple days; and that although deaths were large, they were not high relative to typical days from last week.
