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The COVID-19 model out of @IHME_UW has been a key resource for the White House and public to predict the course of the pandemic. It’s regularly updated to reflect new death and hospital data. (1/12)
I made some animated charts to show how the IHME death curve has changed over time and thought I’d share. Here’s the curve changes for the model’s average daily death data for the US as of last night (2/12):
The model is different from some of the others out there, many of which are SEIR epidemiological models that estimate the properties of the disease and how it spreads through a population. This model instead fits the data to observed curves. (3/12)
The model has been cited by the WH and has received some criticism for its approach and the sudden swings in the model. Here’s the model’s curve for the number of hospital beds needed. (4/12)
I didn’t add them here, but it’s worth noting that the IHME model online has included large confidence intervals on its online charts to reflect the uncertainty. (5/12)
Some of that criticism seems to be related to the predictions themselves -- some of which have been more optimistic than other models -- and the worry that it may be used to justify dangerous public policy. (6/12)
And here’s the curve for the number of ICU beds needed (7/12):
Here’s the change in the curve for the expected shortage in ICU beds (8/12):
Here's the changes to the the overall death curve (9/12):
I’ve covered the model some for @Newsy and @EWScrippsCo, and in my conversations the researchers have emphasized both the limitations of the model and how important it is that strict social distancing remain in place even after the curve starts to come down. (10/12)
I’m also impressed by the effort that epidemiologists and mathematicians and hospitals have invested in creating public resources for people trying to understand this virus and how serious everyone seems to be about explaining them to the public. (11/12)
You can see the most recent version of the model and download the older data here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america. I also recommend the update notes for details about what changed between updates: http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates (12/12)
