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Rant here: To all those who think that Florida is a lost cause because of 2018, think again. First of all, the bluntly realistic truth is that neither Gillum or Nelson were strong candidates. Gillum& #39;s campaign was dogged from the very beginning..
thanks to an FBI investigation into his administration. And when I say campaign, I& #39;m talking about from 2017 onward. Gillum& #39;s progressive platform was fodder for the GOP to paint him as an extremist and they also painted him as anti-semitic too. His primary win was an upset..
that was the result of too many moderate candidates in the field who took votes away from @GwenGraham in addition to a last minute burst of momentum that wasn& #39;t taken seriously because of(wait for it) the polls.
The lack of a foundation for a general election campaign for him obviously weakened him against an opponent that was clearly favored thanks to Trump& #39;s endorsement in the primary and had the benefit of the RPOF& #39;s formidable strength.
One ominous sign that the GOP was not fucking around in 2018 was that Democratic turnout in the gubernatorial primary failed to match Republican turnout in their gubernatorial primary. Clearly the wins that Dems had made in the past year or so in special elections..
motivated the GOP to work harder and it payed off. Going on to the Senate race, people need to start realizing that Nelson was vulnerable from the very beginning and to be honest was maybe even at a slight disadvantage.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2017/02/some-democrats-not-so-sure-nelson-can-win-against-changing-electorate-scott-in-2018-senate-contest-109614">https://www.politico.com/states/fl...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/27/bill-nelson-florida-senate-democrats-rick-scott-795695">https://www.politico.com/story/201...
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/08/14/nelsons-narrow-lead-with-florida-latinos-worries-democrats-556698">https://www.politico.com/states/fl...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/25/scott-leads-nelson-florida-838621">https://www.politico.com/story/201...
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/14/nelson-florida-senate-latinos-rick-scott-645594">https://www.politico.com/story/201...
These articles should tell you all you need to know. Nelson was a vulnerable candidate who was a great Senator but not a good campaigner who lacked familiarity with important/new segments of Florida& #39;s electorate.
Rick Scott was the current Governor, had a huge amount of money that he used to finance his campaign, and literally worked like a dog to make gains with Florida& #39;s latino voters throughout his senate campaign.
Even with his unpopularity, his vast resources and Nelson& #39;s sadly sluggish campaign provided a great chance for the GOP to win this seat. And remember that Nelson got lucky in 2006 with a bad GOP candidate and also had the benefit of running in a Presidential year in 2012..
with another weak GOP candidate. The difference between those two candidates and Scott was huge.
I& #39;m the first to admit that I thought that Gillum and Nelson were going to win and the fact that it was razor close and that hindsight is always a benefit remain true. But when you look at those articles I shared that were done during the election season..
you realize that Nelson was never assured to win reelection and was a vulnerable candidate whom the "fundamentals" were not going to swoop in and save against a candidate like Scott and with the type of campaign he ran.
And Gillum was also a great candidate for the GOP to attack with while DeSantis wasn& #39;t anything special but given that he was painted as "less of a risk" won.
Look, nobody in a campaign is perfect and losing campaigns and candidates get bad reps. But understanding the various pieces and factors in why election results happen the way they do is important. Thinking that Trump& #39;s unpopularity should have been enough to get these..
candidates to win and that not doing so means that Trump is poised to win Florida is just not correct.
For those who are trying to motivate people who think Florida is a lost cause, feel free to share this thread.
