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$MYOV This is extremely strong data. If I were on $ABBV& #39;s Orilissa brand team, I would be pretty worried about right now.
Let& #39;s look at how the data stacks up. (Thread)
Let& #39;s look at how the data stacks up. (Thread)
At 6 months, relugolix has 45% placebo-adjusted dysmenorrhea RR v.s 52% for elagolix 200mg BID. Absolute RR of 75% vs. 76%. I call this exactly on par.
Non-menstrual pelvic pain: placebo-adjusted RR of 23.4% vs. 13.5%. Absolute RR of 66% vs. 24.5%. I call this superior.
Non-menstrual pelvic pain: placebo-adjusted RR of 23.4% vs. 13.5%. Absolute RR of 66% vs. 24.5%. I call this superior.
Let& #39;s look at the absolute reduction is dysmenorrhea pain. Average reduction of 75% from 7.2 to 1.7 (-5.5) out of the 11 point scale. elagolix went from 2.15 down to 0.45 (-1.7), or a 79% reduction on their 3 point scale. This is again, on par.
For these primary endpoints, it is important to note that elagolix 200mg BID has serious BMD concerns! -3.0% at 6 months of treatment! Thus, use is limited. Relugolix blows elagolix out of the water compared to elagolix 150 mg QD. And we don& #39;t have BMD loss. (Check for numbers)
Let& #39;s look at the secondary endpoints hit. Already looked at mean dysmenorrhea, now add overall pelvic pain, impact of daily activities, decreased opioid use, non-menstrual pelvic pain, and dyspareunia. All other AE& #39;s look comparable at first look here; notably we need BMD #& #39;s.
We also need to mention ovulation inhibition results. 100% of patients here achieved ovulation inhibition, with 100% rapid (<1 mo) reversibility. This a differentiator vs. GnRH agonists, where reversibility is more of a concern (I don& #39;t have exact numbers to compare). Strong data
To summarize: relugolix efficacy is on par/a little better vs. elagolix 200mg BID. However, relugolix safety is much better than elagolix, and won& #39;t have duration of treatment limitations or serious BMD concerns. Relugolix blows elagolix 150mg QD out of the water. Long $MYOV.
So, what is this data worth? Using peak share at 40% relugolix/40% elagolix/20% linzagolix (VERY conservative). I think EM data is worth $9.6/sh vs. the ~$3.6 previously reflected. In other words, should trade at ~$17.5 (+52%). Again, very conservative. https://twitter.com/biopharma_cg/status/1252946562407333891?s=20">https://twitter.com/biopharma...
Not quite as conservatively for market share, at 50% relugolix share, we get up to $20+, using some very conservative valuation methodology. Plus, additional value from UF should be realized in the market cap. Easily we should be above $20 here. Long $MYOV.
I& #39;m basically using 2x US peak sales for valuation; if anyone is interested. You could easily justify 3x multiple, which gets you mid 20& #39;s. DCF looks even a bit rosier :) Analyst PT& #39;s of $30+, which I& #39;m sure will come out shortly, are definitely justified here. $MYOV
Interested to see what (cc @BrianSkorney) or other analysts believe.
