Read on Twitter
$MYOV This is extremely strong data. If I were on $ABBV's Orilissa brand team, I would be pretty worried about right now.
Let's look at how the data stacks up. (Thread)
Let's look at how the data stacks up. (Thread)
At 6 months, relugolix has 45% placebo-adjusted dysmenorrhea RR v.s 52% for elagolix 200mg BID. Absolute RR of 75% vs. 76%. I call this exactly on par.
Non-menstrual pelvic pain: placebo-adjusted RR of 23.4% vs. 13.5%. Absolute RR of 66% vs. 24.5%. I call this superior.
Non-menstrual pelvic pain: placebo-adjusted RR of 23.4% vs. 13.5%. Absolute RR of 66% vs. 24.5%. I call this superior.
Let's look at the absolute reduction is dysmenorrhea pain. Average reduction of 75% from 7.2 to 1.7 (-5.5) out of the 11 point scale. elagolix went from 2.15 down to 0.45 (-1.7), or a 79% reduction on their 3 point scale. This is again, on par.
For these primary endpoints, it is important to note that elagolix 200mg BID has serious BMD concerns! -3.0% at 6 months of treatment! Thus, use is limited. Relugolix blows elagolix out of the water compared to elagolix 150 mg QD. And we don't have BMD loss. (Check for numbers)
Let's look at the secondary endpoints hit. Already looked at mean dysmenorrhea, now add overall pelvic pain, impact of daily activities, decreased opioid use, non-menstrual pelvic pain, and dyspareunia. All other AE's look comparable at first look here; notably we need BMD #'s.
We also need to mention ovulation inhibition results. 100% of patients here achieved ovulation inhibition, with 100% rapid (<1 mo) reversibility. This a differentiator vs. GnRH agonists, where reversibility is more of a concern (I don't have exact numbers to compare). Strong data
To summarize: relugolix efficacy is on par/a little better vs. elagolix 200mg BID. However, relugolix safety is much better than elagolix, and won't have duration of treatment limitations or serious BMD concerns. Relugolix blows elagolix 150mg QD out of the water. Long $MYOV.
So, what is this data worth? Using peak share at 40% relugolix/40% elagolix/20% linzagolix (VERY conservative). I think EM data is worth $9.6/sh vs. the ~$3.6 previously reflected. In other words, should trade at ~$17.5 (+52%). Again, very conservative. https://twitter.com/biopharma_cg/status/1252946562407333891?s=20
Not quite as conservatively for market share, at 50% relugolix share, we get up to $20+, using some very conservative valuation methodology. Plus, additional value from UF should be realized in the market cap. Easily we should be above $20 here. Long $MYOV.
I'm basically using 2x US peak sales for valuation; if anyone is interested. You could easily justify 3x multiple, which gets you mid 20's. DCF looks even a bit rosier :) Analyst PT's of $30+, which I'm sure will come out shortly, are definitely justified here. $MYOV
Interested to see what (cc @BrianSkorney) or other analysts believe.
