A thread on why Andrea Belotti would be a very reliable replacement for Lautaro Martinez at Inter.

Belotti is a very effective research sample for anyone who wants to know more about XG.

The Italian overperformed on his XG by a massive 5.29 in the 2016-17. Since then, the numbers have been the usual. He's someone who has scored around 15 goals regularly for Torino.

While that one season was a 'fluke' as he got 26 goals, he's a lot like Lautaro.

Over the years, he's played in a 3-5-2 at Il Toro. He's tasked with scoring and linking up play with the midfield and the other striker. That itself, should ring bells.

Some initial comparisons are encouraging.

The similarity in styles is stark. Both of them take a big number of touches in the box, use their dribbling to link up play and score a similar number of goals. They operate centrally and are proper workhorse strikers that Conte loves.

This comparison does paint Lautaro as a better goalscorer- because he has been so this season.

His overall output is much higher because of how well-oiled Inter. Torino have had a poor season, with Mazzari gone. Being around the relegation has seen Belotti's number take a hit.

What is also similar in their approach to game.

Per @fbref, Lautaro is 2nd in total pressures in attacking third. Belotti is 11th and not too far behind. Both thrive on pressing high, but Belotti's numbers are low as Torino don't play in the attacking 1/2 as much.

It is easy to point out why Belotti might be better as the sole striker. But the same applies for Lautaro as well.

When Icardi wasn't playing last season, Lautaro did a very good job playing as the sole striker under Luciano Spalletti. Belotti has done the same in the past.

But considering how much Belotti regularly underperforms on his XG, he can't be relied on as a regular Lukaku-like striker at a bigger club. He is often doing a lot of the dirty work and he thrives on it.