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1/11
A roadmap for the NHS: lessons from Germany's Hospital System. What we need to do after #COVID19 to be more resilient in the next pandemic:
Published on @1828uk for @ConsumerChoiceC https://www.1828.org.uk/2020/04/21/a-roadmap-for-the-nhs-lessons-from-germany/
A roadmap for the NHS: lessons from Germany's Hospital System. What we need to do after #COVID19 to be more resilient in the next pandemic:
Published on @1828uk for @ConsumerChoiceC https://www.1828.org.uk/2020/04/21/a-roadmap-for-the-nhs-lessons-from-germany/
2/11
In both GER and UK, around 0.18 per cent of the total population has recently tested positive for coronavirus. While the spread of the pandemic is roughly equal, the fatality rate is 420 per cent higher for patients treated by the NHS.
In both GER and UK, around 0.18 per cent of the total population has recently tested positive for coronavirus. While the spread of the pandemic is roughly equal, the fatality rate is 420 per cent higher for patients treated by the NHS.
3/11
GER's decentralised and private laboratory network had already tested over two per cent of its population when the UK’s figure still stood at a meagre 0.7%. UK's centralised testing system, and its failure to scale up tests, might explain part of this mortality gap.
GER's decentralised and private laboratory network had already tested over two per cent of its population when the UK’s figure still stood at a meagre 0.7%. UK's centralised testing system, and its failure to scale up tests, might explain part of this mortality gap.
4/11
While lack of testing has also led to undetected Covid-19 deaths in the UK, even if you make generous adjustments and assume that the fatality rate would remain unchanged even if the NHS tested as much as Germany, the UK has still a 49 per cent higher death rate.
While lack of testing has also led to undetected Covid-19 deaths in the UK, even if you make generous adjustments and assume that the fatality rate would remain unchanged even if the NHS tested as much as Germany, the UK has still a 49 per cent higher death rate.
5/11
Not only is the NHS’s testing system incapable of dealing with a black swan event such as Covid-19, but the entire healthcare system simply doesn’t have sufficient resilience to minimise the harm caused to patients by this virus.
Not only is the NHS’s testing system incapable of dealing with a black swan event such as Covid-19, but the entire healthcare system simply doesn’t have sufficient resilience to minimise the harm caused to patients by this virus.
6/11
In early March GER mainly private hospital system had already freed up beds in intensive care by pushing back elective surgeries and the total capacity of ICU beds was ramped up 40 per cent within a month. GER now has a total of 40k ICU beds and 30k beds with respiration
In early March GER mainly private hospital system had already freed up beds in intensive care by pushing back elective surgeries and the total capacity of ICU beds was ramped up 40 per cent within a month. GER now has a total of 40k ICU beds and 30k beds with respiration
7/11
Germany has now 48 ICU beds per 100,000 inhabitants, which is more than seven times the capacity the UK currently has. Outdated NHS numbers from Feb show at least 80% of ICU beds already occupied. GER has still 45% beds available.
Germany has now 48 ICU beds per 100,000 inhabitants, which is more than seven times the capacity the UK currently has. Outdated NHS numbers from Feb show at least 80% of ICU beds already occupied. GER has still 45% beds available.
8/11
Germany is not only weathering this storm better than the NHS but is even able to fly in and treat hundreds of patients from Italy, France and Spain. The private nature of its hospital system leads to positive externalities for Germany’s neighbours.
Germany is not only weathering this storm better than the NHS but is even able to fly in and treat hundreds of patients from Italy, France and Spain. The private nature of its hospital system leads to positive externalities for Germany’s neighbours.
9/11
British policymakers will need to show courage in the coming months to talk about the failings of the UK’s healthcare system. There are two crucial lessons that will need to be learned in order to prevent, or at least mitigate, another crisis in the future:
British policymakers will need to show courage in the coming months to talk about the failings of the UK’s healthcare system. There are two crucial lessons that will need to be learned in order to prevent, or at least mitigate, another crisis in the future:
10/11
The first is that more private elements in the NHS would not mean that patients were denied care. And the second is that having more private hospitals does not necessarily lead to fewer hospital beds, but a better allocation of skills and resources.
The first is that more private elements in the NHS would not mean that patients were denied care. And the second is that having more private hospitals does not necessarily lead to fewer hospital beds, but a better allocation of skills and resources.
11/11
The centralised nature of NHS does not allow for any part of the chain to fail. Unfortunately, failure is in our nature and less centralised systems are therefore necessary in order to achieve resilience and adaptability in times of crisis.
The centralised nature of NHS does not allow for any part of the chain to fail. Unfortunately, failure is in our nature and less centralised systems are therefore necessary in order to achieve resilience and adaptability in times of crisis.
