How SMART are we? With all this talk of smart versus dumb lockdowns here is a sobering thought. What we know about the spread of the disease is from tests done. Forget the number of tests done thus far. Focus on what the tests yielded.
We did 118,000 tests, and got around 10,000 positives - 8 per cent. Big variation province-wise. KP has 13%, Punjab 7%. Who is testing SMART?
Out of 63,000 tests done in Punjab only 37,000 were of 'suspected' cases. There are WHO guidelines of suspected case: symptoms, travel history, health/essential services. 26,000 cases in Punjab tested OUTSIDE those guidelines.
Not saying other provinces followed guidelines. Likely many 'farmaishi' tests in others too. But here is a little thought experiment. Say, positive to test ratio in suspected cases in Punjab was close to other provinces, e.g. 10 per cent.
This would mean around 4,000 positives out of 37,000 suspected cases, and 300 positives or 2 per cent out of 26,000 'farmaishi' cases. This is about the same as those from an earlier batch of arrivals (38 out of 1,800) - i.e. an asymptomatic population, almost randomly drawn.
What does this mean: an essential element of addressing COVID19 is being done EXTREMELY UNSMARTLY, particularly in the biggest and richest province. Keep this in mind next time you hear a phrase that starts with 'smart.....' please.
In our country, the smartest thing we could do would be to follow globally validated guidelines. A general lockdown would have been smart. Selectivity, parading as smartness, implies the same old same old inequalities, and disastrous outcomes!
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