This chart shows cumulative ONS weekly mortality data up to 10 April. Despite light mortality at the start of the year, another two weeks of experience similar to the last two will take 2020 outside the range of outcomes seen in the years 2013-2019. https://aon.com/unitedkingdom/retirement-investment/COVID-19/Demographic-Horizons-COVID-19-longevity-impact

As a brief explanation, the grey area shows the range of cumulative mortality outcomes over the years 2013-2019, compared to the average over the previous three years.

The solid black line shows actual mortality for 2020 as set out in ONS reports, compared to the 2017-2019 average. The dotted black line increases with previous average experience.

Deaths above the dotted black line are split into “COVID-19” (red) and “Non-COVID-19” (blue) based on ONS figures.