This #EarthDay is a good day to reflect on half a century of failed green prognostications, and the damage that can be done to society, the economy and to countless lives by investing the future in the output of computer models.
#EarthDay is a good day, also to shine a light on the remote, aloof and intransigent elites that have championed the 'planet' over the past century -- to their own elevation and enrichment, at our expense.
The failed prognostications...
And the failed prognosticators... Part 1. From 1972. Funny how little has changed. Except the haircuts.
And part 2.
That film is important.

It shows how certain the prognosticators were, and how policymakers sought to build global political institutions on top of fortune-tellers' claims.

But the prognostications failed, yet the institution-building continued.
The fortune-tellers were *radically* wrong.

Yet this produced no reflection at the UN and its agencies, nor among any member government.

That's amazing, isn't it, for a process which claims a basis in 'science'.
How can you be wrong for half a century, yet still claim to have an objective basis?

The magic formula is "not if, but when".

The crystal ball is just slightly miscalibrated. Half a century of re-calibration produced no better results. "Not if but when" still echoes.
The two new sciences from that era were ecology and cybernetics.

As predictive sciences, they failed. But they continued to have political utility.
They promised to accurately simulate the planet's natural processes, and society's interactions with them. This, the pioneers of the new sciences claimed, would give us the instructional blueprints and operating manual of 'Spaceship Earth".
But it turned out that being right isn't a requirement of predictive science.

The failed science was useful instead as a tool for the systematisation of human society, even if its simulations bore no resemblance to the actual world.
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