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1/ One of the arguments often made in favor of cloud gaming is that it will expand the market to “hundreds of millions” or “billions” of gamers who would not otherwise own a console. See: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/google-stadia
2/ Earlier this month Stadia went free for any user with a Gmail address in a major trial. And we have the first results of what is perhaps the biggest test of the thesis of cloud gaming as market expansion.
3/ Destiny 2 is Google’s headline content, and is available as part of of the trial. When Destiny 2 came out as Stadia launched, it hit a peak of 25,000 players. This was limited to users who had bought in at the $125 price point to be an early adopter.
4/ Today, Destiny 2 on Stadia:
1. Can be played for free
2. On a console that is free
3. In one of the biggest marketing blitzes Stadia has received, having been advertised on Google’s homepage
4. During a pandemic where gaming is massively up https://9to5google.com/2020/04/20/free-stadia-pro-games/
1. Can be played for free
2. On a console that is free
3. In one of the biggest marketing blitzes Stadia has received, having been advertised on Google’s homepage
4. During a pandemic where gaming is massively up https://9to5google.com/2020/04/20/free-stadia-pro-games/
5/ Thanks to the free Stadia trial, Destiny 2 peaked at 36,000 players, just a tad higher than Stadia launch, though the trend is down since then. https://9to5google.com/2020/04/21/destiny-2-google-stadia-free-trial-player-count/#more-351702
7/ The conclusion to draw is most people who were interested in Destiny 2 likely already had a console, the cost of this console was distributed over multiple other games, and owning a console was probably not a significant hindrance to adoption.
8/ In other words, a new market of people who wanted to play a AAA game like Destiny 2 but didn’t own a console has yet to materialize despite the best possible conditions for that to occur. (Everything free, with huge marketing.)
9/ This is not a knock on Stadia— I believe in cloud gaming and Google has a great vision. Rather, I am suggesting that we consider the best data point we have had so far on whether the concept that cloud gaming can “expand” the market for AAA games is true or not.
10/ Having worked in cloud gaming/game streaming for over a decade and built a platform myself, I have long held the perspective that the real opportunity is in “cloud-required” games that are built from the ground up to use datacenter capabilities.
These will come.
These will come.
