More importantly, Unicredit also released loan provisions estimates for Q1 2020 and 2020. It's important for 3 reasons:
1) UCG is a GSIB - biggest Italian bank
2) UCG is big in SMEs in a country severely hit by Covid
3) UCG's CEO doesn't like to cook the books https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1252847465474088960
1) UCG is a GSIB - biggest Italian bank
2) UCG is big in SMEs in a country severely hit by Covid
3) UCG's CEO doesn't like to cook the books https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1252847465474088960
For IFRS 9 purposes they used a scenario worse than IMF (FY20 GDP decline of 13% !!) with 10% recovery in FY21. They get 900m LLP (cost of risk 110bps, o.w. 80bps "pure IFRS9")
FY 2020 is estimated at 100-120bps. Honestly, this is much better than I thought. Also remember that a big chunck (70%) of the 80bps will be transitioned back to CET1.
Unicredit starts being loss making around 250bps cost of risk, so they still have some breathing space.
Unicredit starts being loss making around 250bps cost of risk, so they still have some breathing space.
All in all, I find this reinsuring, especially coming from Unicredit. BUT AS ALWAYS THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
(& by the way consensus was even more optimistic than that so I don't even know how the market will take this)
(& by the way consensus was even more optimistic than that so I don't even know how the market will take this)