1/ A reader pointed me to the fact that #NYC is in its newest reports separately listing confirmed, probable, and deaths “not known to be #COVID.” The total for 3/11 to 4/20 is about 24,000, indicating 16,000-18,000 excess deaths, with an early April peak. https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04212020.pdf

2/ This is obviously a large and sobering number. In a city of ~9 million and a large elderly population it is also not inconsistent with an IFR of 0.25%-0.4% and a massive super-spreading that infected a big percentage of the population in weeks...

3/ And produced severe health care strain that potentially worsened outcomes. The citywide antibody testing cannot happen soon enough.

4/ One last point on this - I wonder if the super-spreading and rush to emergency rooms ultimately produces lots of co-occurring #SARSCoV2 and flu infections (per the French contact tracing paper) - and if those might also worsen ourcomes.

5/ Because - and we need to figure out WHY as soon as possible - what happened in NYC appears very different than what has happened everywhere else in the US.