I think it& #39;s probably time to conclude the IHME midrange fatality estimate (60K) for the US is going to be overshot by a considerable factor. It assumes this V-shaped end to this outbreak that would basically require deaths in some states (WA, MI) to basically cease tomorrow. https://twitter.com/brianbeutler/status/1252772142384635904">https://twitter.com/brianbeut...

All the signs from Italy, etc. are these fatality graphs have a long tail. It& #39;s hard to see hardly any North American jurisdiction meeting the rigid 14 days& #39; decline standard put forward by some as a criteria for restart before middle of May.

Competing "more pessimistic" models, including that of UTexas, also assume a rapid drop off in fatalities in key jurisdictions basically starting tomorrow.

To say we& #39;ve reached a distancing-induced plateau in many places seems fairly well evidenced. I just don& #39;t see a convincing argument anywhere for the rapid reversal on the pandemic& #39;s daily toll in lives the current planning models available to public leaders seem to be assuming.