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Good evening everyone! The IHME model just updated again. As always, models are fed new info as it comes in to recalibrate its predictions. Let's see what has changed since its last update on Friday:
Overall US:
-# of total deaths decreased from 60,308 to 65,976
-Projected bed shortage at peak decreased from 8,127 to 5,147
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/14 to 4/17.
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/10 to 513.
-# of total deaths decreased from 60,308 to 65,976
-Projected bed shortage at peak decreased from 8,127 to 5,147
-Peak hospital usage went from 4/14 to 4/17.
-Under 200 deaths a day went from 5/10 to 513.
Individual state: NY
-Peak hospital went from 4/15 to 4/9. Peak daily death toll went from 4/16 to 4/9.
-Total deaths now projected to be 23,741 instead of 21,812.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/12 (same as last update).
-Peak hospital went from 4/15 to 4/9. Peak daily death toll went from 4/16 to 4/9.
-Total deaths now projected to be 23,741 instead of 21,812.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/12 (same as last update).
State: FL
-Peak hospital use expected to have been on 4/12 instead of 4/14.
-Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/2 (same as last update).
-Total deaths now projected to be 1,537 instead of 1,363.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 5/7 instead of 5/3 .
-Peak hospital use expected to have been on 4/12 instead of 4/14.
-Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/2 (same as last update).
-Total deaths now projected to be 1,537 instead of 1,363.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be 5/7 instead of 5/3 .
State: NJ
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/14 instead of 4/15.
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/16 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 6,952 to 7,116.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/10 instead of 5/9
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/14 instead of 4/15.
-Peak daily death toll projected to have been on 4/16 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 6,952 to 7,116.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/10 instead of 5/9
State: VA
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/23 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll now expected to be on 4/24 instead of 4/25.
-Total deaths projected went from 763 to 771.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected is on 5/3 (same as last update).
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/23 (same as last update). Peak daily death toll now expected to be on 4/24 instead of 4/25.
-Total deaths projected went from 763 to 771.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected is on 5/3 (same as last update).
State: MI
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/12 instead instead of 4/10. Peak death toll projected to have been on 4/17 instead of 4/10.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,304 to 3,361.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 5/3 to 5/4.
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been on 4/12 instead instead of 4/10. Peak death toll projected to have been on 4/17 instead of 4/10.
-Total deaths projected went from 3,304 to 3,361.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 5/3 to 5/4.
State: IL
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been 4/13 instead of 4/17. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/18 instead of 4/19.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,259 to 2,093.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 5/4 to 5/3.
-Peak hospital use is now projected to have been 4/13 instead of 4/17. Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/18 instead of 4/19.
-Total deaths projected went from 2,259 to 2,093.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected went from 5/4 to 5/3.
State: LA
-Peak hospital use was on 4/13 instead of 4/14 . Peak daily death toll projected was 4/14 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 1,685 to 1,704.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/28.
-Peak hospital use was on 4/13 instead of 4/14 . Peak daily death toll projected was 4/14 (same as last update).
-Total deaths projected went from 1,685 to 1,704.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 4/29 instead of 4/28.
State: GA
-Peak hospital use project to be today instead of 4/15. Peak daily death toll on 4/26 instead of 4/7.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,369 to 1,981.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/18 instead of 5/6.
-Peak hospital use project to be today instead of 4/15. Peak daily death toll on 4/26 instead of 4/7.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,369 to 1,981.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/18 instead of 5/6.
State: CA
-Peak hospital use went from 4/14 to 4/13, and peak daily death toll went from 4/16 to 4/18.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,658 to 1,743.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 (same as last time).
-Peak hospital use went from 4/14 to 4/13, and peak daily death toll went from 4/16 to 4/18.
-Total deaths projected went from 1,658 to 1,743.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/1 (same as last time).
State: TX
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/22 instead 4/15.
-Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/16 instead of 4/19
-Total deaths projected went from 957 to 1,166.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/7 instead of 4/30.
-Peak hospital use is now projected to be on 4/22 instead 4/15.
-Peak daily death toll expected to have been on 4/16 instead of 4/19
-Total deaths projected went from 957 to 1,166.
-Under 20 deaths per day projected to be on 5/7 instead of 4/30.
If I did not include your state in this thread, the IHME model can be accessed here where you can select your state. Worth noting that authors of model have also added suggested date of reopening for each state based on data. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Also, as always:
-Models are fallible+need to be constantly updated w/ new data.Changes are expected.
-There are confidence intervals here, so need to look at full range of possibilities
-I did not make this model, and have no power to change its algorithm.Please dont yell at me
-Models are fallible+need to be constantly updated w/ new data.Changes are expected.
-There are confidence intervals here, so need to look at full range of possibilities
-I did not make this model, and have no power to change its algorithm.Please dont yell at me
