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This is bullshit fakery that is easy to spot as bullshit fakery if you know a little bit about statistics, but many people will not - and that's exactly what liars and charlatans like @montie rely on.
I'll briefly explain the trick here. 1/? https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814
I'll briefly explain the trick here. 1/? https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814
First of all, here's a graph from the @ONS - do you see the massive, unprecedented spike in deaths due to Covid-19? Of course you do.
So how do we square this with @montie's tweet saying deaths are actually lower this year than 2018? 2/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020#deaths-registered-by-week
So how do we square this with @montie's tweet saying deaths are actually lower this year than 2018? 2/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020#deaths-registered-by-week
The starting point is simple. Notice how @montie says "cumulative" deaths to week end Apr 20th.
That's right: choose a long baseline that includes many weeks where nobody was dying of Covid in the UK (first death was in early March) and add them in as well for no reason. 3/
That's right: choose a long baseline that includes many weeks where nobody was dying of Covid in the UK (first death was in early March) and add them in as well for no reason. 3/
Why do this? Because if your agenda is to minimise the impact of Covid-19 on deaths, then it makes sense to hide the real death toll in with a whole lot of other deaths.
By the way, coronavirus has only killed a tiny fraction of the people who have died in the last decade ... 4/
By the way, coronavirus has only killed a tiny fraction of the people who have died in the last decade ... 4/
And if you compare them to all the deaths this century, the 15,000+ who have died in the UK in the last few weeks are just the tiniest little blip, so why not use that statistic, huh?
But wait, there's another level to the deception still. 5/
But wait, there's another level to the deception still. 5/
Oh yeah, did you notice the comparison mentions quite a specific year? Why pick 2018 in particular, and not the average yearly number?
Because 2018 was a very bad year for winter flu, 3x more people died of flu in 2017-2018 than the year before. 6/ https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814?s=19
Because 2018 was a very bad year for winter flu, 3x more people died of flu in 2017-2018 than the year before. 6/ https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814?s=19
Winter flu was not so bad in 2019-20. So yes, fewer people died this year in January and February than in 2018 - that's the other thing, most people die of winter flu *in the winter*. 7/
So if you're a bullshit RW death merchant with an agenda like @montie you:
- pick a 15-week timeframe that includes most winter flu cases but only ~3 weeks of Covid
- look at cumulative numbers to hide Covid deaths in the noise
- cherry pick bad winter flu year to compare to
8/
- pick a 15-week timeframe that includes most winter flu cases but only ~3 weeks of Covid
- look at cumulative numbers to hide Covid deaths in the noise
- cherry pick bad winter flu year to compare to
8/
And voila! Now you have a statistic that can apparently support your contrarian simplistic "we're overreacting" hot take. If your audience are as stupid as you think they are, of course. /end
Addendum: According to official numbers, coronavirus deaths in the UK only crossed 100 in w/c March 16 (the 12th week) and crossed 1000 March 28 (end of 13th week). Now at >16,500.
If you include Jan-Feb in your cumulative comparison you're either a fool or malicious.
If you include Jan-Feb in your cumulative comparison you're either a fool or malicious.
