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This is bullshit fakery that is easy to spot as bullshit fakery if you know a little bit about statistics, but many people will not - and that& #39;s exactly what liars and charlatans like @montie rely on.
I& #39;ll briefly explain the trick here. 1/? https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814">https://twitter.com/montie/st...
I& #39;ll briefly explain the trick here. 1/? https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814">https://twitter.com/montie/st...
First of all, here& #39;s a graph from the @ONS - do you see the massive, unprecedented spike in deaths due to Covid-19? Of course you do.
So how do we square this with @montie& #39;s tweet saying deaths are actually lower this year than 2018? 2/
#deaths-registered-by-week">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020 #deaths-registered-by-week">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop...
So how do we square this with @montie& #39;s tweet saying deaths are actually lower this year than 2018? 2/
#deaths-registered-by-week">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020 #deaths-registered-by-week">https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepop...
The starting point is simple. Notice how @montie says "cumulative" deaths to week end Apr 20th.
That& #39;s right: choose a long baseline that includes many weeks where nobody was dying of Covid in the UK (first death was in early March) and add them in as well for no reason. 3/
That& #39;s right: choose a long baseline that includes many weeks where nobody was dying of Covid in the UK (first death was in early March) and add them in as well for no reason. 3/
Why do this? Because if your agenda is to minimise the impact of Covid-19 on deaths, then it makes sense to hide the real death toll in with a whole lot of other deaths.
By the way, coronavirus has only killed a tiny fraction of the people who have died in the last decade ... 4/
By the way, coronavirus has only killed a tiny fraction of the people who have died in the last decade ... 4/
And if you compare them to all the deaths this century, the 15,000+ who have died in the UK in the last few weeks are just the tiniest little blip, so why not use that statistic, huh?
But wait, there& #39;s another level to the deception still. 5/
But wait, there& #39;s another level to the deception still. 5/
Oh yeah, did you notice the comparison mentions quite a specific year? Why pick 2018 in particular, and not the average yearly number?
Because 2018 was a very bad year for winter flu, 3x more people died of flu in 2017-2018 than the year before. 6/ https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814?s=19">https://twitter.com/montie/st...
Because 2018 was a very bad year for winter flu, 3x more people died of flu in 2017-2018 than the year before. 6/ https://twitter.com/montie/status/1252670468152311814?s=19">https://twitter.com/montie/st...
Winter flu was not so bad in 2019-20. So yes, fewer people died this year in January and February than in 2018 - that& #39;s the other thing, most people die of winter flu *in the winter*. 7/
So if you& #39;re a bullshit RW death merchant with an agenda like @montie you:
- pick a 15-week timeframe that includes most winter flu cases but only ~3 weeks of Covid
- look at cumulative numbers to hide Covid deaths in the noise
- cherry pick bad winter flu year to compare to
8/
- pick a 15-week timeframe that includes most winter flu cases but only ~3 weeks of Covid
- look at cumulative numbers to hide Covid deaths in the noise
- cherry pick bad winter flu year to compare to
8/
And voila! Now you have a statistic that can apparently support your contrarian simplistic "we& #39;re overreacting" hot take. If your audience are as stupid as you think they are, of course. /end
Addendum: According to official numbers, coronavirus deaths in the UK only crossed 100 in w/c March 16 (the 12th week) and crossed 1000 March 28 (end of 13th week). Now at >16,500.
If you include Jan-Feb in your cumulative comparison you& #39;re either a fool or malicious.
If you include Jan-Feb in your cumulative comparison you& #39;re either a fool or malicious.
