so, here's my big theory thread on how things are going to shake out in the USA over the rest of 2020, starting with some extremely scuffed maps i made for context:

on the left is the total coronavirus cases overlaid with a heat map displaying cases per capita. i've circled areas with both a high number of outbreaks and a high case:capita ratio. i've also marked the navajo nation for reasons i'll get to later.

on the right is my extremely wack map of state economies. broadly speaking, if it's in the red, it's fucked. if it's in green, it's good. if it isn't marked, i didn't know enough to say. because of the recent collapse of oil prices, every oil economy is royally FUCKED.

service and vacation dependent economies are also fucked (i've marked those on the map), but it's also worth noting that INSURANCE and HEALTH economies are fucked. as people get laid off, they won't be paying into insurance anymore.

on top of that, insurance companies bank on 1.) old people dying when they calculate that they'll die and 2.) most of the people who pay into health insurance never actually using it.

covid-19 disrupts both those things.

so not only will they be losing customers as people lose their jobs, they will alltogether cease to be profitable. so insurance economies? fucked.

without insurance companies or government healthcare, hospitals will foot the bill.

not only that, but because of the way that the government is distributing PPE and ventilators (bidding wars), the cost to maintain a hospital will go up. not even to mention the way hospitals have "just in time" deliveries normally, meaning now their entire supply chain is gone.

so, hospital-based economies? going under. smarter and more experienced people than i have written about the problems american hospitals are facing. suffice it to say, sans complete nationalization, the hospital economy is fucked.

back to the map. i want to remind you that these are the stated which are fucked within an economy that is ALREADY in a depression unparalleled in american history. new york's economy is only in the green because it's mostly banking and god only knows how finance bankers think.

the economy of texas, in particular, is fucked, because not only is oil at absurdly low prices, ALL immigration to america is now banned. what parts of the texas economy aren't oil, are immigrant labor. so, the second largest economy in the states will be brought to a standstill.

if the contrast of the map isn't clear, the only places with an economy that might survive are also the ones with the worst of the epidemic.

so, what do i think will happen as a consequence?

well, one thing is clear: the US is going to collapse under it's own weight. there just isn't enough government infrastructure to keep everything running. rome brought down by a plague, also collapsed under it's size, yadda yadda. anyway, look at these maps:

the left shows the current regional economic coronavirus pacts. while i don't know if the states themselves will hold up, it can give us a good idea of which states share similar economies and along what lines they would be most likely to divide.

of particular note is the western states pact: the first one formed. furthermore, they make up the largest most stable economic sector now that the oil industry is in the process of collapsing.

however, these pacts could become illegal if the president declares them to be.

on the right is a map of food deserts in the united states. these are impoverished areas that lack easy access to food, and when the food shortages hit in about 2 months, these places will feel it the worst. (basically all of alaska and hawaii are food deserts)

here's my first predicted scenario which i'm calling civil war 2: this time it's east/west

essentially, this outcome might happen as a result of the strengthening of the state pacts.

trump, under pressure from his connections in the business world, plays up the astroturfed protests in the midwest and forcibly reopens the economy prematurely. the states in all other pacts except the west coast pact submit, making it defacto illegal.

all the pacted states coalesce, representing the original capitalist body of the united states. they likely will attempt to deploy force on the west coast states, which become communist in response to the suppression and declare their independence.

it's possible that the US government reaches the military strongholds in california first, but they'll have definitely lost some sway with the navy at the very least. the west coast has the most military bases, meaning if they were taken they could theoretically be independent

it's extremely unlikely that this would deter the US government, which would likely (foolishly) attempt to retake the west coast. however, unlike in the civil war, the rebelling states would have the economic advantage, especially if they received aid from china.

i believe that they would go communist in the event of a west coast independence because 1.) there's a ton of communist sentiment there already (see the lenin statue in oregon) and 2.) they would need outside aid, and china + other communist countries would make powerful allies

subsequently, alaska and hawaii would each declare independence through a combination of eastern pressure and internal native rebellions. they would be necessary chokepoints for military aid to the west coast, which is why they were inducted into america in the first place.

by this point, the oil-based economies of the internal western states would have collapsed, and the west coast-china alliance would likely seize this opportunity to advance eastward. at this point, a struggle would ensue over control of america's breadbasket, the midwest.

this leads into scenario 2: class warfare, which could happen either independently or as a result of struggle for the midwest.

now, in this specific map, the Xs represent areas that i believe are vulnerable to rioting. obviously, as a continuation of scenario 1, riots would start west and spread east, but if it happens as a result of covid-19, it could start east and spread west.

essentially, as food shortages occur, either as a result of fighting in the midwest or as a result of the rampant food destruction, riots will start to break out among affected communities as they seize control of food supply, production, and distribution.

were this to happen concurrent with the aforementioned civil war, it would almost certainly ensure a victory from the communist west coast, seeing as by this time, china, vietnam, and north korea would have recovered from COVID-19 and could send supplies, whereas europe would not

however, if they were to happen first, it's possible trump would seize emergency powers in response and suspend elections, which would then lead to an attempted independence movement in the west coast.

in either scenario, due to the vast poverty, food deserts, and general oppression in the deep south, i believe it will be difficult for the federal government to suppress what will likely become something functionally resembling race riots.

i have also noted the navajo nation, which, in either scenario, i believe will fight the US government for what should be somewhat obvious reasons. (seriously, read about the conditions on the reservation)

while the map on the right represents what i believe will be the initial riots in the event of no wexit, they will spread to the other oil-dependent states approximately 6 months from now when the oil economy is no longer (forgive the expression) running on fumes

texas is almost certainly going to declare independence, but i don't think it'll be the first to do it. now, in the "food riots" scenario, i actually think that it'll be the chesepeake or appalachian area that does it.

now, this is where things get tricky, because while a wexit scenario will, i believe, inevitably lead to communism, a southern rebellion might... well, you know, turn out racist.

optimistically, it'll be a grassroots working class movement, but it could also be an astroturfed campaign to overthrow the government in a corporate backed coup to force america open.

finally, it's possible that, due to new york being the epicenter of the outbreak, the east coasters just go fucking apeshit and tear up the rich wallstreet bastards there because they have nothing left to lose. in this case, i think we'd get some sort of protracted people's war

because the US government would be extremely hesitant to bomb the east coast into the dirt because they'd be destroying infrastructure they would eventually want back, and rebuilding new york isn't exactly profitable.

personally, i think wexit is scenario most likely to result in a new, nonfascist state. they would have chinese, vietnamese, and possibly even north korean military backing, a huge military advantage if they could secure army bases, and are the last leg of the us economy.

anyway. those are my thoughts. just observations based on current material conditions and all that.

oh wait, there's one more possibility- the US and china enter a war (probably started by the US as it starts to run out of money and attempts to rally with a war) and wexit happens that way. either way california and texas aren't going to stay in the union.