The Science of Reopening with #COVID is important to me because a) I'm a scientist b) I'm a working doctor & c) I don't want people to get sick or die. But the science is hard to find with all the noise out there...but lets try:

#COVID19 #COVIDー19 #coronavirus #COVID19Colorado

Why here? I live & work in Colorado & Governor Polis @GovofCO joins a few others in lifting some social distancing restrictions & I'm curious about: why? and what will this mean for #COVID19Colorado? Asking as a scientist, doctor & concerned citizen.

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDー19

I intend on focusing on the science of #COVID infection & the medical impact of reopening. There are certainly critical economic, social, political & personal stakes in quarantine, social distancing, etc, but I'll stick with the medical side.

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDー19

Disclaimers: 1) Although I focus on #COVID in Colorado, this could be relevant elsewhere 2) This isn't meant to emotional or judgmental. This is a sincere, live attempt to get some answers/data 3) This is not my data or work (its analysis of others)

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDー19

The Colorado Dept of Public Health & Environment @CDPHE released a report from public health experts on #COVID19 modeling in CO - an update building on a prior report. Link to press release & report below:

https://covid19.colorado.gov/press-release/state-releases-latest-covid-19-modeling-information

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19 @KyleClark

I may be biased (see bio) but this group would be the experts to go to: The COVID-19 Modeling Group. This update focusing on Projections for Future "Scenarios" of Social Distancing aka Reopening. Go Buffs! (Rams too)

https://covid19.colorado.gov/sites/covid19/files/COVIDModelingReport-042020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1MEgYgbEBTm_YDMuA_BjxciHQW7yoy86ylY3j3Hu8mjYyGWxYyuLIpWjU

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Governor Polis' recent Press Conference/Webinar was based on this report or at least cited it. Seems important. Fortunately, although detailed, they wrote it very very well... well enough for even me to understand...

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Starts with a summary of current state of #COVID19Colorado & the efficacy of the measures so far. After the "Stay-at-Home" order on March 26th we achieved a 65-75% reduction in the contact rate! Not only a #FlatteningtheCurve but a bending!

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Key Finding: 'If these successful interventions are continued, its likely that most Coloradans remain[...] uninfected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus.' So if we keep this up, from a medical perspective GREAT! but what about all those other issues?

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

So why don't we keep "Bending the Curve?" Without editorial there are a lot of pressures to re-open, putting it mildly. So the group modeled several reopening scenarios to provide data driven decision making.

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Part 2 is all about modeling (estimating/predicting) the impacts of different levels of reopening aka relaxing/lifting social distancing measures. So what do the experts think?

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19 @KyleClark @GovofCO

'Relaxing social distancing carries the risk of a second peak of infections that could potentially
exceed current hospital capacity.' The top line & my fear. The more relaxed we are the sooner the peak, the more risk of being overwhelmed.

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

'to avoid exceeding hospital capacity, relatively high levels of social distancing of around 60% and a combination of complementary interventions (???) will be needed.' So what we are doing AND complementary interventions? - What are those?...

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Complementary Measures: things that are encouraged or just were done at the individual level. i.e. mask wearing, aggressive case detection & containment (testing), & high risk folks stay at home.

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Here is the 1st set of models predicting hospitalizations & ICU need based on just how relaxed we are as Coloradans: 65-75% is where we are now, you can see how soon & high the peak is with how "chill" we get. (no comp interventions see above)

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

Now I have to admit I don't know what 35% vs. 60% looks like. Are we talking "Going Both Ways Down the Aisle" Chill, "Finally Getting that Tattoo" Chill or "Block Party Where I Really Don't Know Your Name, I Think He is A Mike" Chill?

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

What I think is important is the difference in outcome based on these "chill" percentages: Basically when does the **** hit the fan depending on how people react to this lifting.

65% - we good
45% - "catastrophic second peak in the fall"

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

A lot of verbiage on reopening seems to systemically open venues and then rely on individual behavior to mitigate that risk. Based on what I see in the parks and alleys of my own 'hood, I am not optimistic.

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

There is a lot of nuance and details to the report and the model and I encourage you to look yourself. Also every model is just that, a prediction or facsimile. And I have at least one more point...

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

One of the key interventions for which the sunniest of models is built is the aggressive detection & containment of the infected. AKA we need more & better tests! This is really important & at least @KyleClark is asking those questions.

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

So in conclusion:
1. Some data to suggest that careful reopening in Colorado can avoid total disaster (more people will still die though)
2. Based heavily on human behavior ("Jeff, where is your mask bro?")
3. Based on testing we do not have

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19

As you can tell my following is low (but passionate) so feel free to retweet and/or comment if you found this helpful or whatever.

#COVID19Colorado #COVID #COVIDー19 #coronavirus #gronk #tuesdayvibes #pats