Most countries in the world have needed to use social distancing to slow down spread of COVID, not just the US. Only a few countries just started to begin process of lifting social distancing. No country has anywhere close to the number of cases or deaths the US now has. 2/x
The conditions for more safely easing social distancing start with a state having a steady decline of new cases for 2 wks. 3/x
A minority of states are there or approaching that, while others – including some actively talking about quickly ending social distancing --continue to have hundreds of new cases of COVID a day.4/x
Other conditions key for reopening are wide-scale rapid Dx testing for all pts w/ COVID, including mod. and mild cases which aren't being tested in most places); adequate PPE+hosp capacity to prepare for new surge; and, strong, rapid public contract tracing/quarantine 5/x
Governors that decide to move ahead quickly without having reduction in cases and meeting these other conditions are taking high risks of a renewed rise of the epidemic in those states. 6/x
Governors should do all in their power to get to those conditions, and also communicating w/ public that epidemic is not over, that individuals will still need to social distance at least 6 ft apart, wear cloth masks when in indoor spaces out of home, telecommute, not gather. 7/x
Governors need to convey that easing social distancing should be done in stages, be closely monitored and that things may or may not go well. And that every person continues to have a role to play to decrease the likelihood and speed of COVID transmission.8/x
One key means of dealing w/ COVID after social distancing measures are relaxed is to rapidly identify all COVID cases, trace their close contacts, and have them stay in quarantine for 2 weeks. That wont be possible w/ hundreds of new cases appearing every day in a state. 9/x.
States don’t have the rapid diagnostics on hand, or readily accessible in ways that will be needed for most or all people w even mild or moderate illness consistent w possible COVID to be tested and get results that same day.10/x
It takes great deal of time to investigate new cases of COVID and all their close contacts, which may order on the number of 20-40 more people, depending on the person and their home and work life.11/x
Health depts around the country will not be able to keep up with hundreds of new cases appearing every day, each of whom have ~ 20 contacts or more to track down and move into quarantine. 12/x
On what grounds would DOJ in Washington force a governor to open specific business(es) in that state? Does DOJ have an analysis of the risks and benefits of the epidemic spreading in a state and the measures being taken to stop it that is more accurate than that governor?13/x
If DOJ forces a state government to open businesses before the governor believes it's safe to do so, then it would be DOJ that would be responsible for the new cases of COVID caused by that decision. The DOJ should not take that kind of position or be in that role. 14/x
Everyone wants businesses to reopen as quickly as is possible. But it should be done in a way that lower risks of renewed spikes in the epidemic. Threatening legal action against governors trying to act responsibly for their states is the wrong way for the country to go.15/x
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