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OK, I'm going to try to do something very carefully and explain why it makes sense for certain states to start looking carefully at relaxing stay-at-home orders.
It is going to involve dissecting our national numbers into regional numbers. /1
It is going to involve dissecting our national numbers into regional numbers. /1
When we got the 100K-250K death projection, I set up a spreadsheet that would help gauge how far along the path to 100K deaths we were.
For simplicity, it assumed a consistent death rate across all states, so I could see how far along a given state was toward 100K or 250K /2
For simplicity, it assumed a consistent death rate across all states, so I could see how far along a given state was toward 100K or 250K /2
About 10 days ago, NY was the first state to pass the 100K line. Today, unless there is a miracle, they will pass the 250K line.
That is to say: If every state got hit as hard as NY has gotten hit, there would be 250K deaths nationwide /3
That is to say: If every state got hit as hard as NY has gotten hit, there would be 250K deaths nationwide /3
It looks like NJ will probably end up hitting the 250K mark before this is over. Maybe also CT.
I am not sure people outside NYC realize how bad this has gotten in NYC and the surrounding areas. It's really bad. Like... horror movie bad. /4
I am not sure people outside NYC realize how bad this has gotten in NYC and the surrounding areas. It's really bad. Like... horror movie bad. /4
But I also think a lot of people don't realize how *not as bad* this has been in a lot of other areas.
Georgia is cautiously opening up. It's half the size of NY but has 5% as many deaths. /5
Georgia is cautiously opening up. It's half the size of NY but has 5% as many deaths. /5
Now you can say "oh that's b/c they are earlier in the curve" but... they aren't *that* much earlier. They aren't 4 weeks behind NY.
Even though this hit Albany, GA pretty hard, as a state this is nowhere near the scale that this hit NY. Not anywhere close. /6
Even though this hit Albany, GA pretty hard, as a state this is nowhere near the scale that this hit NY. Not anywhere close. /6
And GA is in the middle range of affected states. 31 states have a death-per-100K rate of under 4.0
GA has 7.3
For perspective, NY's rate is 74 deaths per 100K, NJ's is almost 50.
These are VASTLY different scenarios. /7
GA has 7.3
For perspective, NY's rate is 74 deaths per 100K, NJ's is almost 50.
These are VASTLY different scenarios. /7
This does NOT MEAN that these other states are out of the woods and it does NOT MEAN they can be careless.
But the NYC situation is not happening elsewhere and I don't think it's likely to happen.
I'm not going to speculate on why, that's not what this thread is for. /8
But the NYC situation is not happening elsewhere and I don't think it's likely to happen.
I'm not going to speculate on why, that's not what this thread is for. /8
I suspect there will be some "second wave" effects as we cautiously re-enter, each state or region at the date and pace they've determined is right for their situation.
We should celebrate and hope that everyone makes a wise and considered choice. /9
We should celebrate and hope that everyone makes a wise and considered choice. /9
