Official Florida data looks off compared to similar states. Just 10% of FL tests come back positive—low compared to other states. FL’s median age is highest among top COVID states, but its fatality rate is oddly lower than almost anywhere else.

It defies science. THREAD https://twitter.com/joyannreid/status/1252426646147043329

The top ten states in terms of COVID cases (and their relative fatalities) are:

NY: 253,191 (18,653)
NJ: 88,806 (4,520)
MA: 39,643 (1,809)
PA: 33,914 (1,348)
CA: 33,686 (1,225)
MI: 32,000 (2,468)
IL: 31,508 (1,349)
FL: **27,058 (823)**
LA: 24,523 (1,328)
TX: 20,083 (519)

The fatality rates for each state in the top ten are:

NY: 8%
NJ: 5.1%
MA: 4.2%
PA: 3.8%
CA: 3.7%
MI: 7.4%
IL: 4.3%
FL: **2.9%**
LA: 5.4%
TX: 2.5%

The median age for each state in the top ten:

NY: 35
NJ: 39
MA: 39
PA: 40
CA: 36
MI: 39
IL: 37
FL: **42**
LA: 36
TX: 33

How does the state with the oldest population in the top ten have one of the lowest fatality rates? It doesn’t make much sense—unless Florida isn’t connecting fatalities to positive COVID tests. And that seems abundantly likely when you look at the testing pattern in Florida.

In terms of testing, here is the ranking of the top ten by amount of tests issued:

NY: 617,555
CA: 280,900
FL: **256,079**
TX: 182,710
NJ: 170,688
MA: 162,241
PA: 157,753
IL: 143,318
LA: 141,504
MI: 109,661

CA, FL and TX all have similar positive case rates (the amount of positives being identified by all the tests conducted). CA’s is 10.9%, TX is 10.3%, while FL’s is 10.1%. But FL isn’t similar to TX or CA in several key respects.

CA put social distancing orders in place before anywhere else; FL infamously left beaches and restaurants open for spring break and beyond. CA and TX rank lower than FL for population density; FL looks more similar to NY and PA in that respect.

If FL statistically should look more like PA or NY, then its positive case rate should mirror theirs, too. PA’s is 22%. NY’s is 39%. Even MI’s is 20%. FL’s is just 10.1%. FL might be missing a lot of cases.

COVID’s disproportionate lethality for older patients
+
Florida’s status as a dense state
+
Florida having the oldest population in the top ten
+
Florida’s oddly low positive rate
——
Doesn’t add up. It just doesn’t.

Governor DeSantis is one of few governors not doing daily briefings. Local FL news orgs had to sue him to release data on FL nursing homes with positive COVID cases. DeSantis even pressured a prominent law firm to drop the Miami Herald as a client in its lawsuit—and the firm did.

But The Herald kept going, and DeSantis suddenly caved and released the data. Turned out there are hundreds of nursing homes around the state with COVID infections. Unclear why DeSantis suddenly changed his mind about a legal battle, which may have led to discovery of more info.

If I were a Floridian, I would be concerned that only 10% of the state’s tests are identifying positive cases. Florida is not California or Texas. It is dense; it was slow to act; it has an older population; it has a high number of cases already. Something looks off. END.