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Current debates on an #exitstrategy follow a broader pattern. Thread
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There are 2 options:
- Strict lockdown until the virus is under control (R0 low, infections low), then open, test & trace
- Reopen sooner, then engage in a permanent balancing act to keep infections at R0~1
There are 2 options:
- Strict lockdown until the virus is under control (R0 low, infections low), then open, test & trace
- Reopen sooner, then engage in a permanent balancing act to keep infections at R0~1
Most Asian countries chose option 1, let& #39;s call it & #39;suppress and control& #39;
Most European and American countries head towards option 2 - say: âmitigate and adaptâ â by designing strategies to reopen parts of the economy quickly
Opening now means accepting to live with the virus.
Most European and American countries head towards option 2 - say: âmitigate and adaptâ â by designing strategies to reopen parts of the economy quickly
Opening now means accepting to live with the virus.
To be clear, the strategy âmitigate and adaptâ implies:
- we accept more deaths in retirement homes, to have less unemployed
- we restrict social & cultural life durably, to reopen âthe economyâ a few weeks earlier
There are interesting parallels to other political fieldshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ" title="Down pointing backhand index" aria-label="Emoji: Down pointing backhand index">
- we accept more deaths in retirement homes, to have less unemployed
- we restrict social & cultural life durably, to reopen âthe economyâ a few weeks earlier
There are interesting parallels to other political fields
Climate change:
Instead of an early, strict ban on fossil fuel combustion & trade, policy focused on âmitigationâ, i.e. keeping temperature increase below âdangerousâ levels (1.5-2°C), while adapting to impacts.
Result: oil majors still drill, and we live in a warming world.
Instead of an early, strict ban on fossil fuel combustion & trade, policy focused on âmitigationâ, i.e. keeping temperature increase below âdangerousâ levels (1.5-2°C), while adapting to impacts.
Result: oil majors still drill, and we live in a warming world.
Pesticides:
Instead of banning pesticides when health consequences became obvious, regulators defined thresholds for individual substances.
Result: Industrial agriculture uses ever more pesticides, and we live in an increasingly âtoxic worldâ https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/BoudiaPowerless">https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bou...
Instead of banning pesticides when health consequences became obvious, regulators defined thresholds for individual substances.
Result: Industrial agriculture uses ever more pesticides, and we live in an increasingly âtoxic worldâ https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/BoudiaPowerless">https://www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bou...
In all cases, we accept new risks â living with the virus, with climate change, with chemical hazards â so that âthe economyâ, or certain industries, can continue largely unconstrained.
These choices are often naturalized, when they should be subject to democratic debate
These choices are often naturalized, when they should be subject to democratic debate
