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Let's talk influenza and COVID mortality (again!).
THREAD.
People keep bringing this up so I'd like to put this to bed once and for all (I hope).
It is often said there are 60,000 flu deaths in the United States. e.g.: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
THREAD.
People keep bringing this up so I'd like to put this to bed once and for all (I hope).
It is often said there are 60,000 flu deaths in the United States. e.g.: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Now, 60k is closer to the upper bound than the central estimate. But, whatever. 60k it is — for flu.
We are approaching 60,000 COVID deaths for the USA and I expect we will get there on or before 1 May. So — at that point — it will have equaled the flu season, right? WRONG.
We are approaching 60,000 COVID deaths for the USA and I expect we will get there on or before 1 May. So — at that point — it will have equaled the flu season, right? WRONG.
Measuring mortality by cause is a tricky business.
Our working number for flu is 60k, but there are *not* 60,000 USA death certificates per year that list "influenza" as the cause of death. Typically, it's at most ¼ that number: https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2013.833816
Our working number for flu is 60k, but there are *not* 60,000 USA death certificates per year that list "influenza" as the cause of death. Typically, it's at most ¼ that number: https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.2013.833816
non-gated version of that article 
here:
https://webfiles.uci.edu/noymer/web/noymer_nguyen_bsb_accept.pdf
here:https://webfiles.uci.edu/noymer/web/noymer_nguyen_bsb_accept.pdf
The 60,000 flu death per year number comes from a model. A statistical model, examining excess winter mortality and coming up with a number.
On winter mortality: https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.45
On winter mortality: https://dx.doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.45
On the other hand, the 60,000 COVID deaths that we are rapidly approaching in the USA is a direct tally.
It is NOT from an excess-mortality model. It is a count.
On a like-for-like basis, flu deaths would be approx 15,000 per year.
It is NOT from an excess-mortality model. It is a count.
On a like-for-like basis, flu deaths would be approx 15,000 per year.
When the dust settles and we have the final mortality data for 2020, we can study how COVID mortality stacks up to flu on a like-for-like basis. Spoiler: the number will be higher than our tally-numbers. https://twitter.com/AndrewNoymer/status/1241620288825167874
Until then: the COVID and influenza mortality comparisons are a canard.
Don't fall for it.
SARS-CoV-2 infection will kill more people in the United States this year than even our most severe flu seasons. Fact.
Don't fall for it.
SARS-CoV-2 infection will kill more people in the United States this year than even our most severe flu seasons. Fact.
