Pastoral predictions regarding the pandemic should prepare us to practically preserve the marks of a true church: the preaching of the Word, the administration of the sacraments or ordinances, and church discipline or membership.

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Pastoral predictions that fail to lay the groundwork for those tasks in the midst of or following the pandemic are generally not helpful, and pastoral predictions that promote pet projects like 'online' or 'house' 'church' are unhelpful. Likewise for those that promote fear.

Roughly a month ago, we saw models, predictions, and reports claiming that some 2.2 million United States Americans could die from COVID-19. Obviously, the number we are seeing now is not even close to that.

Of course, we have heard all sorts of sophisticated sounding justifications for the aforementioned discrepancy, but the point I want to make is both simple and defensible: people do not know the things they claim to know.

If medical experts and government officials can get so many things so wrong in relation to this pandemic, and contradict one another, and fail to properly communicate to the populace, how much more so for the pastors who are well outside their wheelhouse in making predictions?

Pastors do not need to be prepared for the current state of affairs to continue for another year. Why? Because we have already adjusted to the current state of affairs. We only stand to get better at the things we are doing right now. Instead, we need to be prepared to reopen.

Why? Because medical experts and government officials are moving toward reopening. Inserting dystopian futures based on fear into the actual state of affairs where medical experts and government officials are moving toward practical steps to reopen is pastorally unwise.

Do not worry about staying closed. Be ready to reopen with practical measures to protect the flock both spiritually and physically while preserving the preaching of the Word, the administration of the sacraments or ordinances, and church discipline or membership.

I do suspect church gatherings will look a bit different for a little while, but outside of the things we must continue to do until the pandemic has passed, none of us actually knows what will change. Not even medical experts can predict that. But we do know what must not change.