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Let's talk about the #LPL spring split and some expectations about the playoffs and how we should expect teams to perform.
A thread:
A thread:
I have a ranking system for teams that is based on performance through the season relative to the strength of the opponent. I call it "ELO tech" as the strategy is derived from ELO rankings in chess (and SBMM in video games). I'm going to refer to that through this thread.
I'm also going to talk about win rates against top and bottom half teams in the league. We want to know who performs well in all circumstances, of course, but I think there's some good insight that we can gain about teams based on over or under performing in specific spots.
So, let's get into it! Here are the full season (split) ELO tech ranks along with the win rates for each team against top and bottom half of the league for the #LPL:
JDG is the team that gained the most ELO points per game in the spring split. They also happen to be the trendy favorite to win the playoffs. V5, to no ones surprise, finished dead last. They were so bad they actually, on average, lost ELO every game. That's incredible.
iG, ES, FPX and TES fill out the upper tier in terms of ELO gained per game. I'll have more on TES and ES later, who had drastically different finishes to the split, but these are the five teams we should expect to do well in the playoffs. EDG and RNG are wildcards, and WE...
Well, WE are frauds. This isn't a surprise. I've been preaching all split that both WE and OMG can only really perform consistently against worse teams. OMG got knocked out of the playoff picture by WE in the final season game, but WE should get manhandled in their first match.
You can see from the win rates against TH (top half) and BH (bottom half) teams that OMG only won 15.79% of their games against teams in the top half of the league. WE only won 29.41%. They finished with by far the worst record against top half teams in the playoffs.
Indeed, I have Team WE ranked 12th in the league in ELO tech. Both VG and BLG were better suited for the playoffs, and had DMO not had such a disaster of a start to the split they would have been a playoff team.
speaking of DMO and bad early split, let's look at week 5 forward:
speaking of DMO and bad early split, let's look at week 5 forward:
ELO tech and win rates from week 5 forward:
The top 4 teams in ELO gained from week 5 on:
JDG
TES
iG
DMO (???)
DMO had a fantastic finish to the season taking some games off of top teams and winning 85.71% of their games against bottom half opponents.
JDG won 100% against TH and 90.91% against BH. BUT...
JDG
TES
iG
DMO (???)
DMO had a fantastic finish to the season taking some games off of top teams and winning 85.71% of their games against bottom half opponents.
JDG won 100% against TH and 90.91% against BH. BUT...
JDG only faced one top half opponent in the second half. In the entire split, they won less than half of their games against TH opponents (6-8). I know that they finished strong, and they were dominant against BH opponents, but that record against TH opponents is worrisome.
ES looked even worse. Estar went just 2-4 against TH opponents in the second half and, like JDG, wasn't all that strong in the overall split (6-7). EDG had similar issues going just 2-6 in the week 5 and up sample. JDG, ES, and EDG are teams I think will struggle in the playoffs
Which brings us to the teams that I think will thrive: iG, TES, FPX, and my dark horse for the playoffs, RNG. All four of these teams finished the overall split with positive records against TH teams. RNG had the best record in the league against top half opponents at 68.75%.
The problem, as I noted many times in the sub discord, has been that RNG plays to their opponents skill. They won just 45% of their games against bottom half opponents overall and 42.86% from week 5 forward. But they are a very good team when they want to be.
FPX had the second hardest schedule of any playoff team with 18 games against top half opponents and finished with a 56% win rate in those matchups. Even when you consider that they finished the split in weak fashion by getting swept by TES, they deserve respect.
iG finished the split as the top team in the rankings and the second team in ELO tech, but they were one of the most consistent teams in the league with a 58.82% win rate against TH and 80% against BH. From week 5 on, those numbers were 60/80. Their issue is they play loose.
iG had the hardest week 5 forward with 10 games against TH. They kind of feel like G2, where they have been playing fast and loose and giving up kills but when they want to finish the game they have better skill and teamwork than anyone else.
Except for maybe one team: TES.
Except for maybe one team: TES.
TES wasn't getting the respect they deserved BEFORE JackeyLove joined the squad in place of Photic. And JKL just kind of supercharged them in every way. They finished the week 5 forward sample going 5-2 against TH opponents and sweeping FPX in the finale. They look incredible.
Even if the upgrade from Photic to JKL wasn't huge, their synergy and decision making in all aspects went up a notch or two. They are playing aggressively and letting individual skillsets of everyone shine. Both the macro and micro improvements have them as a top 3 team.
With ELO tech and win rates in consideration as well as understanding the strengths of each team, I rank the top 5 as follows:
iG
TES
JDG
FPX
RNG
iG and TES are in their own tier, then JDG and FPX, with RNG being just outside the elite.
iG
TES
JDG
FPX
RNG
iG and TES are in their own tier, then JDG and FPX, with RNG being just outside the elite.
The key questions for me:
- Can JDG perform as well against top tier teams as they did against average to bad teams?
- Can iG stop fucking around and focus on winning and not give up games in pointless fashion?
- Can RNG continue to play up to their opponents?
- Is JKL God?
- Can JDG perform as well against top tier teams as they did against average to bad teams?
- Can iG stop fucking around and focus on winning and not give up games in pointless fashion?
- Can RNG continue to play up to their opponents?
- Is JKL God?
Ultimately, I think the playoffs come down to iG or TES. I don't think that JDG is the top team. I think FXP is insanely good but has shown cracks even in high leverage spots. If an unexpected team wins it all, I think RNG is worth a bet. ES and EDG are shakey. WE sucks.
It's been a hell of a split and I'm excited for the playoffs! Hopefully the best teams win and we don't have any weird stuff happen and we can start getting ready for the summer split and what comes through the rest of the year!
If you liked all of this data, you should subscribe to my site! I share all the ELO tech and win rates along with this level of analysis every single day before every slate in the subscriber discord. Just $25 a month for every sport and model I create! http://paydirt.ghost.io
