Thread by @DrMilks, We've got a problem and it's a big one:My liberal-as-hell spouse & [...]

We& #39;ve got a problem and it& #39;s a big one:

My liberal-as-hell spouse & I have now both read current Covid-19 science with our Stanford biochem PhD hats on.

And current science suggests that continuing "national" quarantine can very well kill MORE people. 1/

My beloved spouse Frank can be, uh, frank, but he is also a polymath. And, you know, that PhD in biochem from Stanford.
His long-format essay walks you step by step through current data of Covid-19, with references and figures.
I hope you read it. https://fcbrowncloud.com/2020/04/21/on-testing/">https://fcbrowncloud.com/2020/04/2... 2/

On testing.

With more data, many of us can stop being afraid and start helping our friends & neighbors who are most at risk.

https://fcbrowncloud.com/2020/04/21/on-testing/

I know this thread might make me unpopular.

And I know many of us have/will have family & friends who die from this virus, or pass ourselves. I am so sorry

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💔" title="Broken heart" aria-label="Emoji: Broken heart">

But the data is such that it& #39;s worth posting this. If you follow me here, I hope you have good reason to trust me. 3/

(Both of us are so thankful for all the people taking care of everybody right now: our physician family members working in hospitals, our neighbors who work in hospice and grocery, & all the essential workers we& #39;re not friends or neighbors with (yet!).
Thank you.) 4/

Again: it& #39;s not everyday that I find myself even coincidentally supporting similar policies to the recent astroturfers and protesters.

But please read Frank& #39;s post, even though it& #39;s heavy and angry, and please hear me out. 5/

First: Current models show that continuing social distancing now can actually CAUSE the epidemic to last over a year. In the essay above, Frank unpacks them, but you can look at any of figures 4, 5, or 6 in the Science Mag paper linked below:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793">https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e... 6/

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviru...

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

Second: Immunity to other coronaviruses often disappears within one year. Here& #39;s the paper:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2271881/">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/artic... 7/

The time course of the immune response to experimental coronavirus infection of man.

After preliminary trials, the detailed changes in the concentration of specific circulating and local antibodies were followed in 15 volunteers inoculated with coronavirus 229E. Ten of them, who had...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2271881/

Put together (along with data sets from PCR & antibody testing described in Frank& #39;s essay), this means that if our govts prolong the epidemic to last over a year, people can get Covid-19 multiple times, & models from Harvard (linked above) show *more* people dying. 8/

Both of us (Frank, an activist & educator in the "justice" system; me, a public high school teacher) understand full well that many in our lives, for the 1st time, might see how important it is that we put people in power who build equitable structures for $, ed, health, etc. 9/

And that we (re)learn how to take care of each other.

I don& #39;t mean to be a pollyanna, but I& #39;m glad about some of the conversations we& #39;re having on a national scope as a result of these experiences.

(And v thankful to my school district, whose response has been incredible) 10/

But the data suggest that all of us practicing strict social distancing can cost more lives.

Also: I want to make sure you know that, when Frank started researching, *I didn& #39;t want to hear it.* I wanted all of us to mask up & stay safe; the media said things would be bad 11/

and at the time, with the data available, that was the story: the virus was a huge danger; initial data suggested that as many as 10% of people infected with Covid-19 would die. But we& #39;ve got a lot more data coming in now. 12/

And the great thing about being a scientist is that, when new data comes in, you get to use it to inform -- and even change -- your worldview and your actions. 13/

Many elected officials/advisors must know what Frank & I can now see in the data: that antibody tests will almost certainly show that Covid-19 infections have been widespread but undetected or mild in large areas of the country. That it is less dangerous than early reports. 14/

Finally: yes, I want to go back to school, yes, I want to be with my students.

But I& #39;m going to teach, online or by mail or Morse code or tin-can-phone, if that& #39;s what called for.

I just want to ask all of us (& media & elected officials) to make those calls data-informed. /16

Here& #39;s Frank& #39;s essay about this one more time.

(For the record, he only very rarely complains about how gross kids can be!)

Thanks for reading. Please reach out if you have any questions. We& #39;ll try to answer them. /end https://fcbrowncloud.com/2020/04/21/on-testing/">https://fcbrowncloud.com/2020/04/2...

On testing.

With more data, many of us can stop being afraid and start helping our friends & neighbors who are most at risk.

https://fcbrowncloud.com/2020/04/21/on-testing/

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