Part 3

Ok. Finally we come to USSR breaking up and The rise of Putin

Nobody, I mean Nobody, saw the rise of Putin

In the second half of 1980s , as USSR started to crumble, Putin was mid level UNEXCEPTIONAL KGB spy based out of Dresde, East Germany https://twitter.com/IndradeepKhan/status/1249717536284762112

Putin was Efficient&Hardworking.

But the adjectives stopped there &he was destined for a middling KGB career

He was no Naseer or Che or Khomeni

He was no charismatic leader about to take the world by storm

NOBODY looked at Putin &said he would one day change the world

He however had ONE quality

He
Was
Loyal

and riding on this quality, the world was about to witness a series of extraordinary and mind boggling events that would lead to an unexceptional middle level spy becoming one of the most important persons in the world

First, for the Dominoes to start falling, the 3rd Oil Shock had to play itself out

It came because in the middle of 1980's the Saudi's realised that they were getting chumped

While Saudis protected prices, Other OPEC countries were cheating&Non Opec was producing peak capacity

To prevent this from adversely impacting Oil prices, the Saudis kept on cutting production

Its production fell 80% from its highs &its oil revenues fell from $119Bn in 1981 to $26Bn in 1985

Saudi's had been warning for some time, until the proverbial camels back broke

Finally in the middle of 1985, Saudis stopped defending price and moved to defend market share

FLOODING the market with millions of barrels of oil

WTI plummeted 70% and Global Oil revenues plummeted

This sweating had an additional unintended consequence

The financial shock was too much for an already shaky USSR &with an economy kept on life support by oil revenues, it imploded

The time had come for Putin

But before that, we take a detour for the greatest Oil trade ever made

Salomon Bros, Sadaam Hussein, Oil tankers& Andy Hall

In 1991 Andy hall heard Sadaam make belliose statements abt war

Most people thought he was bluffing or crazy (or both)

One person believed him

and that was Andy Hall, the greatest oil trader ever

At that time Andy was head of Phibro, the Oil trading arm of Salomon Bro&Citi

As Sadaam Continued his Rhetoric, Futures prices inched up, while spot prices remained subdued

Hall decided to take advantage of this Contango, by loading every oil tanker possible& selling the futures

and then, he removed the hedge, making an enormous fortune as Sadaam invaded

Back to Putin

He left East Germany when the Berlin Wall fell in 1991 &USSR disintegrated

Returning home, he became advisor to Mayor of St Petersburg, eventually becoming one of the 3 Deputy Mayors

Prophetically the Mayor was betrayed by one of Deputy mayors&he lost elections

Only one person stood by him even in defeat

The Loyal Putin

A fellow member of the council remembered this loyal sacrifice

He would become influential under the now President, Yelstin & appointed Putin as a Spokesperson

Think of Putin as Sambit Patra

This was 1996

In a remarkable 3 YEARS, through a series of extraordinary coincidences, Putin would move from Spokesperson to head of FSB to Prime Minister to President

At Notime did Putin get ahead by any extraordinary action or political prowess

He was just efficient &LOYAL

As Yeltsin faltered, he came to trust Putin

Putin would not betray him &Yelstin decided to nominate him as President as he retired

However as he faced his first elections, Putin was the underdog of 3 candidates

Unremarkable&without popular support he was expected to lose

Till the Russian equivalent of Balakot happened

A series of terrorist bombings rocked Moscow

Putin as leader, took firm warlike actions &riding nationalistic sentiments, he won against all odds

The origin of the bombings is murky and there is some proof that FSB had a hand

Whatever be the truth, Putin won

He was ready to be King

In the image of Peter the Great, he would fundamentally change Russia more than any leader in Russian history

However for you to understand Putin, you have to unlearn everything you have read in Western Media abt Putin

He is no thug, bandit, despot, dictator

In his tenor, Russian per capita income has increased by 6times, increasing by 10% annually in DOLLAR terms

It is now higher than Malaysia, China, Czech and Turkey and approaching that of Portugal

It has redefined the UniPolar post cold war world and has emerged as a second most significant geopolitical player behind the US

Wile questions about democracy in Russia is legitimate , Putin personal popularity has ranged between 65 to 80%

The making of Modern Russia has EVERYTHING to do w/ Oil

Its a story involving Oligarchs, Radioactive Poisoning, Invasion of Ukraine&Georgia, of Syria & Iraq & the ISIS Caliphate

&of a brash young fighter pilot who against all odds wld be Saudi King

That however will be Part 4