Let me try a clarify the confusing blizzard of stats re Covid-19 in UK.
The latest sharp rise in Covid-related deaths takes the total toll to almost 17,400. This is an aggregation of the daily deaths compiled by NHS and covers only those who died in hospital.
Earlier today the ONS published its latest weekly death stats for w/e April 10. These stats included deaths from all causes in hospitals, care homes and in the community eg at home. They take longer to compile, use death certificates and are published with about a 10-day delay.
The ONS stats showed that total Covid-deaths by April 10 had reached over 13,100. This is significant because by April 10 hospital-only Covid deaths had reached circa 9,300. Overall Covid deaths had aggregated to circa 40% more than hospital-only Covid deaths.
So it is possible to take the latest hospital total — 17,400 — and conclude that the real figure of total Covid deaths is currently closer to 24,500. What we won’t know til subsequent ONS stats are published is if that 40% ratio holds for the weeks and days after April 10.
But whatever the ratio it is clear that total Covid deaths are substantially more than hospital-only calculations. We’ve always suspected/known that but today’s ONS stats confirm it, starkly.
I offer this somewhat tentatively and will happily updated/amend/correct as required. The stats are muddy waters!
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