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NEW FROM ME: Internal federal government documents reveal the assumptions & estimates agencies are using to sketch out the future of the #COVID19 pandemic https://publicintegrity.org/health/coronavirus-and-inequality/federal-documents-more-than-300000-likely-to-die-if-restrictions-are-lifted/
The documents say that 300,000 Americans are likely to die if we lift all restrictions now. But they also later DOUBLED their case fatality rate, and outside experts say even that may be too low.
Getting these numbers right is very tricky business, but so much depends on doing that. If we underestimate, we lose lives. If we overestimate, we cause needless economic harm.
Experts agreed the road back to "normal" needs to be carefully calculated. “We have at this moment the finger on the spring. If we remove the finger, the spring jumps. So we will see a lot of cases.”
The story is also posted with our fabulous partners at @NPR : https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/839456638/what-happens-if-u-s-reopens-too-fast-federal-documents-show-coronavirus-projecti (And we each have different, helpful graphics, so take a look at those)
