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When a scientist says "This paper doesn& #39;t show this" or "We don& #39;t have enough evidence to say"
They are not saying it& #39;s wrong. Or that it will never be shown. They are saying we all need to be really careful how we interpret this.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2
1/13
They are not saying it& #39;s wrong. Or that it will never be shown. They are saying we all need to be really careful how we interpret this.
#COVID19 #SARSCoV2
1/13
This *seems* simple but it& #39;s misinterpreted *all the time*.
Ex: When I say "we don& #39;t know for sure if masks are beneficial at population level" I am not saying "masks don& #39;t work" or "we& #39;ll never know if masks work." I& #39;m not even weighing in on policy decisions on masks.
2/13
Ex: When I say "we don& #39;t know for sure if masks are beneficial at population level" I am not saying "masks don& #39;t work" or "we& #39;ll never know if masks work." I& #39;m not even weighing in on policy decisions on masks.
2/13
I& #39;m simply saying, "we don& #39;t have evidence for this, so let& #39;s not pretend we do." That doesn& #39;t mean it& #39;s wrong. It means *we don& #39;t know yet.*
This is really critical and important in science. And you& #39;ll see scientists stepping in to clarify this *a lot.*
3/13
This is really critical and important in science. And you& #39;ll see scientists stepping in to clarify this *a lot.*
3/13
Often they get taken to town for suggesting the idea behind study is "wrong." That& #39;s not what they& #39;re saying. They& #39;re saying we can& #39;t say that idea is *right* from this study.
We might find the exact same thing in future, through better/different work - we might not.
4/13
We might find the exact same thing in future, through better/different work - we might not.
4/13
Scientists may get accused later of "getting it wrong" when in actuality what they were saying is "THIS doesn& #39;t prove X". That doesn& #39;t mean another study won& #39;t prove X later -- & scientists aren& #39;t claiming that.
This really bothers me.
5/13
This really bothers me.
5/13
There are also limits on *what* we can tell from studies, which often get lost in media. The viral load/pathogenicity/mutations study from today being a good example: https://twitter.com/NathanGrubaugh/status/1252562768068304898
This">https://twitter.com/NathanGru... is outside of my field so I can& #39;t comment much on the methods.
6/13
This">https://twitter.com/NathanGru... is outside of my field so I can& #39;t comment much on the methods.
6/13
What I *can* say (& matches Nathan above) is that it& #39;s very, very hard to extrapolate from virulence in Vero cells to #COVID19 disease severity in humans.
The study may not be "bad" - but it is easily over-interpreted in the current #SARSCoV2-media-frenzy & public interest
7/13
The study may not be "bad" - but it is easily over-interpreted in the current #SARSCoV2-media-frenzy & public interest
7/13
Again, this is different from saying "none of these mutations influence disease severity." What is being said is "this does not tell us how mutations impact disease in humans."
A lot of people now like to jump in with & #39;common sense& #39; - but this isn& #39;t how science works!
8/13
A lot of people now like to jump in with & #39;common sense& #39; - but this isn& #39;t how science works!
8/13
And trust me - you are glad it works this way! You are glad that treatments, medicines, & protocols aren& #39;t based on & #39;common sense& #39; from a monkey-cell study.
It is *literally our job* to know where to draw the line on & #39;what we know.& #39;
9/13
It is *literally our job* to know where to draw the line on & #39;what we know.& #39;
9/13
Studies like the above may indeed still be interesting first steps to guide us - but they are a long way from what they often end up portrayed in comments, social media, & mainstream media. (Watch out for this!)
10/13
10/13
Other studies may be hopelessly wrong in design/execution/interpretation, but later their conclusion may be proven correct by a better/different method. That doesn& #39;t make the original study any less wrong or uninformative.
11/13
11/13
So when a scientist says "this doesn& #39;t show this" or "we don& #39;t know" - please try to remember to pause & evaluate this for what it is - a caution to *watch out* - the evidence isn& #39;t here yet!
But I have great faith in science - we& #39;re moving so incredibly fast right now!
12/13
But I have great faith in science - we& #39;re moving so incredibly fast right now!
12/13
We *will* find the answers to many of the questions we have today. We are working together so well, so openly, so fast on #COVID19 #SARSCoV2
But it& #39;s worth waiting for the real, hard evidence. We& #39;ll all benefit more from it!
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👏🏻" title="Clapping hands sign (light skin tone)" aria-label="Emoji: Clapping hands sign (light skin tone)">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙌🏻" title="Raising hands (light skin tone)" aria-label="Emoji: Raising hands (light skin tone)">
13/13
But it& #39;s worth waiting for the real, hard evidence. We& #39;ll all benefit more from it!
13/13
